- Cleus
- Predictions
Polymarket odds, read by an AI that keeps score.
Cleus’s own forecast next to every price, the bets that look like someone knows something, where the smart money sits, and the rules that trip traders up. Free, live, and every call is scored in public.
Ask Cleus about any market
Odds, rules, what the news means for a market, whether a price looks wrong. Searches the web and X live. No account needed.
Analysis, not financial advice. Prediction markets can lose you money. Free: 3 questions a day.
- traded in the last 24 h
- $36M
- unusual bets in the last day
- 6
- markets with Cleus odds
- 35
- live events tracked
- 531
Bets that look like someone knows something
The strongest big bets of the last day: new wallets, first markets, long odds, a lot at once. Scored 0–100 with the reasons. Evidence, not accusations.
- 100Geopolitics · 8 h ago
Taipei Mayor Election Winner: Puma Shen
$23K on Yes at 30¢ · pays $78K
- Wallet opened yesterday
- Only its 2nd market ever
- Most of the wallet's money went into this one bet
0x208c…a3961d old · 2 mkts · −$1.6K P&L - 91Geopolitics · 10 h ago
Next Prime Minister of Sweden: Ulf Kristersson
$7.2K on Yes at 29¢ · pays $25K
- Wallet opened the same day
- Only its 2nd market ever
- Most of the wallet's money went into this one bet
0xe52b…732anew that day · 2 mkts · +$1.5K P&L - 80Politics · 6 h ago
Presidential Election Winner 2028: Jon Ossoff
$4.3K on Yes at 21¢ · pays $21K
- Wallet opened the same day
- Its first market ever
- Most of the wallet's money went into this one bet
0x1852…1feenew that day · 1 mkt · −$84 P&L - 80Geopolitics · 6 h ago
Next Prime Minister of Sweden: Ulf Kristersson
$2.8K on Yes at 31¢ · pays $9.1K
- Wallet opened the same day
- Only its 2nd market ever
- Most of the wallet's money went into this one bet
0x7b47…a16cnew that day · 2 mkts · +$195 P&L - 58Geopolitics · 17 min ago
US-Iran effective ceasefire continues through...?: November 8
$2.2K on No at 18¢ · pays $12K
- Its first market ever
- Most of the wallet's money went into this one bet
- Underdog at 18¢
0xa843…33a1251d old · 1 mkt · +$1.9K P&L - 55Politics · 17 h ago
Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?: Democratic
$16K on Yes at 68¢ · pays $23K
- Its first market ever
- Most of the wallet's money went into this one bet
0x7978…b8a253d old · 1 mkt · −$392 P&L
Every live market, sorted your way
Every live Polymarket market worth watching, busiest first. Click any row for Cleus’s read, the chart, smart money and the rules in plain words.
25 bps increase
Fed Decision in December? · Economy
Rolex Paris Masters: Luca Van Assche vs Rinky Hijikata
Sports
Benjamin Netanyahu
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? · Geopolitics
No change
Fed Decision in December? · Economy
Match Winner
LoL: Karmine Corp vs T1 (BO5) - Worlds Playoffs · Sports
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs T1 (BO5) - Worlds Playoffs · Sports
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs T1 (BO5) - Worlds Playoffs · Sports
November 7
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? · Geopolitics
Gadi Eizenkot
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? · Geopolitics
J.D. Vance
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 · Politics
November 15
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? · Geopolitics
JD Vance
Presidential Election Winner 2028 · Politics
Chiang Wan-an
Taipei Mayor Election Winner · Geopolitics
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
Geopolitics
Magdalena Andersson
Next Prime Minister of Sweden · Geopolitics
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?
Politics
Puma Shen
Taipei Mayor Election Winner · Geopolitics
Ulf Kristersson
Next Prime Minister of Sweden · Geopolitics
Thunder vs. Grizzlies
Sports
Avigdor Lieberman
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? · Geopolitics
Match Winner
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Gen.G (BO5) - Worlds Playoffs · Sports
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Geopolitics
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Economy
Marco Rubio
Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027? · Politics
Rolex Paris Masters: Taylor Fritz vs Carlos Alcaraz
Sports
November 15
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? · Economy
Ducks vs. Flames
Sports
November 8
US-Iran effective ceasefire continues through...? · Geopolitics
Bilibili Gaming
Worlds 2026: Winner · Sports
T1
Worlds 2026: Winner · Sports
↓ 2,200
What price will Ethereum hit in November? · Crypto
December 31
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? · Geopolitics
Gen.G
Worlds 2026: Winner · Sports
O/U 2.5
Venezia FC vs. Udinese Calcio - More Markets · Sports
Everton FC
Everton FC vs. Coventry City FC · Sports
December 31
Netanyahu out by...? · Geopolitics
Wolfsberger AC
SK Rapid vs. Wolfsberger AC · Sports
November 6
US-Iran effective ceasefire continues through...? · Geopolitics
Marine Le Pen
Next French Presidential Election · Geopolitics
Christine Lagarde
Next French Presidential Election · Geopolitics
November 30
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? · Geopolitics
Trump out as President before 2027?
Geopolitics
December 31, 2026
AI bubble burst by...? · Economy
Lions vs. Dolphins
Sports
Western Kentucky vs. Middle Tennessee
Sports
Jon Ossoff
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 · Politics
Taranto: Kilian Feldbausch vs Sumit Nagal
Sports
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
Economy
76ers vs. Cavaliers
Sports
Sevilla FC
Sevilla FC vs. Deportivo Alavés · Sports
Scored in public, losses included
Anyone can claim an edge. Every Cleus call and every strong flag is written down when it’s made and checked when the market settles.
The ledger opened November 6, 2026. Cleus’s first call on every market is frozen the moment it’s made and scored against the result with a Brier score — next to the market price at that same moment, so you can see whether it actually beats the crowd. Results appear here as markets settle.
Every bet scoring 65+ is logged when it’s spotted, then checked when its market settles: did it win, and how many hours before the result was it placed? Tools that sell insider alerts quote win rates with nothing behind them. This one keeps the receipts in public, losses included.
How it works
Cleus odds
- Reads the market’s rules word for word.
- Searches the web and X for the latest facts.
- Commits to its own probability, with the reasons and sources.
- Refreshes every 3–12 hours; the first call is frozen for scoring.
Unusual-bet score
- Wallet age: opened the same day scores highest.
- History: first or second market ever.
- Odds and size: long shots, $10K+ at once.
- Concentration: most of the wallet in one bet.
- Sports and crypto prices scored down.
Smart money
- Top holders of each side, from Polymarket’s public data.
- Weighted by what each wallet has made all-time.
- Shows which side wallets with $25K+ profit are on.
- Wallets are shown as short addresses, never names.
Browse by topic
- Politics odds 234Elections, primaries, cabinet moves and what governments do next.
- Geopolitics odds 151Wars, ceasefires, strikes, leaders and deals between countries.
- Economy odds 115The Fed, rates, inflation, IPOs, earnings and companies.
- Crypto odds 129Bitcoin, Ethereum and token price targets, ETFs and launches.
- Tech & AI odds 32AI labs, model launches, big tech and product releases.
- Culture odds 31Awards, music, movies, celebrities and what people post.
- Sports odds 457Games, matches, tournaments and esports.
Most traded right now
Questions
How do Polymarket odds work?
Each outcome trades between 0¢ and $1 and pays $1 if it happens. The price is the crowd’s probability: a share at 63¢ means traders put the chance at about 63%. Prices move as people buy and sell.
What are Cleus odds?
Cleus’s own probability for an outcome. Cleus reads the market’s rules, searches the web and X for the latest facts, and commits to a number — the market price is one input, not the answer. The gap between the two is the “edge” column.
Is Cleus actually better than the market?
That is what the track record is for. Cleus’s first call on every market is frozen when it is made and scored with a Brier score when the market settles, next to the market price at that same moment. Wins and losses both stay on the page.
What makes a bet “unusual”?
The pattern from the documented cases: a brand-new wallet, few or no previous markets, long odds, a lot of money at once and most of the wallet’s funds in one bet. Each bet gets a 0–100 score with the reasons listed. Sports and crypto-price bets are scored down because a fresh wallet backing an underdog there is usually just a gambler.
Is an unusual bet insider trading?
Not necessarily, and this page never says it is. A bet can look informed and be a lucky guess, a hedge or someone who simply read the news faster. Under the CFTC’s 2026 guidance, insider trading means misusing confidential information in breach of a duty — something no public data can show. We show the evidence and never tie a wallet to a person.
What is the yield view?
Outcomes priced 85¢ or more pay $1 if they hold. The yield view shows the return after Polymarket’s taker fee and annualises it over the days left. A very high APY usually means the market sees a real chance the “sure thing” fails, or a rules problem — check the rules column first.
What is rules risk?
Markets settle on their written rules, not on what everyone assumes. Rules that rely on “credible reporting” or discretion, rules clarified after launch, markets past their end date and anything disputed on UMA get flagged, because that is where traders lose money on outcomes they called correctly.
What does Cleus Premium add here?
Live unusual bets (the public list is 30 minutes behind) with push and email alerts, a watchlist with a morning brief, a check of your own Polymarket positions, on-demand deep research, wallet X-rays and follows, unlimited Ask Cleus, and 90 days of history as CSV or through the Cleus API. The market pages, Cleus odds and the track record stay free.
Is this financial advice?
No. It’s data and analysis. Prediction markets can lose you money, and they are not available everywhere — check the rules where you live.
Market data: Polymarket’s public Gamma and Data APIs, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds and explanations by Cleus. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.