Next French Presidential Election
Odds right now: Marine Le Pen 45%, David Lisnard 15%, Jean-Luc Mélenchon 13%.
Show 18 more outcomes
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Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “Marine Le Pen”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 10 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
- 100Geopolitics · 26 days ago
Next French Presidential Election: David Lisnard
$11K on Yes at 14¢ · pays $77K
- Wallet opened the same day
- Its first market ever
- Most of the wallet's money went into this one bet
0x629f…7407new that day · 1 mkt · +$299 P&L - 96Geopolitics · 39 h ago
Next French Presidential Election: David Lisnard
$9.6K on Yes at 16¢ · pays $60K
- Wallet opened the same day
- Its first market ever
- Most of the wallet's money went into this one bet
0xbaa9…6b86new that day · 1 mkt · −$776 P&L - 96Geopolitics · 26 days ago
Next French Presidential Election: Édouard Philippe
$5.6K on Yes at 22¢ · pays $25K
- Wallet opened the same day
- Its first market ever
- Most of the wallet's money went into this one bet
0x4a8c…6d47new that day · 1 mkt · −$6.2K P&L - 80Geopolitics · 46 h ago
Next French Presidential Election: Jean-Luc Mélenchon
$4.8K on Yes at 14¢ · pays $35K
- Wallet is 4 days old
- Its first market ever
- Most of the wallet's money went into this one bet
0xa750…725e4d old · 1 mkt · −$858 P&L - 80Geopolitics · 8 days ago
Next French Presidential Election: Christine Lagarde
$2.5K on Yes at 5¢ · pays $55K
- Wallet opened the same day
- Only its 2nd market ever
- Most of the wallet's money went into this one bet
0x1665…5594new that day · 2 mkts · +$1.1K P&L - 71Geopolitics · 7 days ago
Next French Presidential Election: David Lisnard
$8.6K on Yes at 19¢ · pays $45K
- Wallet is 12 days old
- Only its 2nd market ever
- Underdog at 19¢
0x636a…555912d old · 2 mkts · −$5.2K P&L - 71Geopolitics · 11 days ago
Next French Presidential Election: Édouard Philippe
$5.0K on Yes at 17¢ · pays $29K
- Wallet opened the same day
- Underdog at 17¢
0x5a54…da63new that day · 12 mkts · −$2.5K P&L - 68Geopolitics · 7 days ago
Next French Presidential Election: Christine Lagarde
$5.0K on Yes at 6¢ · pays $90K
- Wallet is 12 days old
- Only its 2nd market ever
- Long shot at 6¢
0x636a…555912d old · 2 mkts · −$5.2K P&L - 65Geopolitics · 29 days ago
Next French Presidential Election: Édouard Philippe
$1.3K on Yes at 22¢ · pays $5.7K
- Wallet opened yesterday
- Its first market ever
- Underdog at 22¢
0x7e08…003b1d old · 1 mkt · −$1.1K P&L
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Full rules from Polymarket
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Ask Cleus about this market
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Questions
What are the odds of Next French Presidential Election?
On Polymarket, Marine Le Pen is trading at 45%. Other outcomes: Marine Le Pen 45%, David Lisnard 15%, Jean-Luc Mélenchon 13%. Prices update live.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on April 19, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.