
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Odds right now: December 31 47%, November 15 77%, November 30 62%.
No ceasefire is in force since July 8, so every line needs a NEW truce plus zero qualifying strikes. Talks are live (Qatar 3-day draft, Vance-Rezaei channel) but Trump is weighing strikes — short dates are near-locks, December is a coin-flip at best.
- December 31Cleus 38% vs mkt 47% −9
- November 30Cleus 58% vs mkt 62% −4
- December 15Cleus 45% vs mkt 52% −7
- November 6Cleus 97% vs mkt 98% −1
- November 7Cleus 88% vs mkt 93% −5
- November 15Cleus 72% vs mkt 77% −5
- As of Nov 5, 2026 (Day 251) no ceasefire or agreement is in force; the June 17 Islamabad MoU collapsed July 7-8.
- Qatar is pushing a draft three-day confidence-building arrangement; Vance reached out to Rezaei on terms, but Trump says 'maybe I will, maybe I won't' on strikes.
- Iran says the US proposal is 'insufficient'; US struck Qeshm Island Nov 2-3 and Israel is lobbying for escalation.
- 2026 Iran war - Wikipedia
- Trump signals progress on Iran deal as Tehran pushes faster ceasefire | US-Israel war on I
- Iran War Live Map — Real-Time Strike & Casualty Tracker | IranWarLive
- 2026 Iran war ceasefire - Wikipedia
- Iran War 2026 -- Day 251 Update -- 5 November 2026
- Conflict With Iran | Global Conflict Tracker
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “November 7”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 18 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
- 65Geopolitics · 31 h ago
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?: November 15
$1.6K on No at 21¢ · pays $7.7K
- Wallet opened the same day
- Its first market ever
- Most of the wallet's money went into this one bet
0xbf75…ecf4new that day · 1 mkt · +$143 P&L - 65Geopolitics · 3 days ago
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?: November 7
$1.5K on No at 16¢ · pays $9.3K
- Wallet opened the same day
- Its first market ever
- Most of the wallet's money went into this one bet
0x5b01…594fnew that day · 1 mkt · −$800 P&L - 50Geopolitics · 2 days ago
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?: November 7
$1000 on No at 13¢ · pays $7.8K
- Wallet opened yesterday
- Underdog at 13¢
0x4f3a…ec242d old · 176 mkts · +$1.1K P&L - 50Geopolitics · 5 days ago
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?: November 6
$800 on No at 20¢ · pays $4.0K
- Wallet opened the same day
- Its first market ever
- Underdog at 20¢
0x7dba…9d70new that day · 1 mkt · −$2.8K P&L - 50Geopolitics · 4 days ago
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?: November 4
$700 on No at 7¢ · pays $9.8K
- Wallet opened the same day
- Only its 2nd market ever
- Most of the wallet's money went into this one bet
0x8be9…cd37new that day · 2 mkts · −$966 P&L - 50Geopolitics · 6 h ago
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?: November 7
$700 on No at 6¢ · pays $11K
- Wallet is 21 days old
- Long shot at 6¢
0x9ca1…669421d old · 6 mkts · −$1.6K P&L - 50Geopolitics · 3 days ago
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?: November 5
$680 on No at 11¢ · pays $6.0K
- Its first market ever
- Most of the wallet's money went into this one bet
- Underdog at 11¢
0x3825…ea18294d old · 1 mkt · −$662 P&L - 50Geopolitics · 4 days ago
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?: November 5
$600 on No at 8¢ · pays $7.9K
- Wallet opened the same day
- Only its 2nd market ever
- Long shot at 8¢
0x4978…5e8anew that day · 2 mkts · −$628 P&L - 50Geopolitics · 3 days ago
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?: November 5
$569 on No at 9¢ · pays $6.3K
- Wallet is 3 days old
- Only its 2nd market ever
- Long shot at 9¢
0x8e0d…2f3c3d old · 2 mkts · +$12 P&L
How it actually resolves
In plain words: Yes only if a ceasefire is in effect continuously through the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST; any Israeli or Iranian air strike or surface-to-surface missile/drone that impacts the other's territory kills it.
Watch out: Interceptions, debris, SAM fire, artillery and 'minor' short-range drone/ATGM hits don't count — but a single qualifying impact ends it permanently, and a truce must already exist.
Rules risk: The proposed result was disputed on UMA and is going to a vote.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.
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Questions
What are the odds of Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
On Polymarket, December 31 is trading at 47%. Cleus’s own estimate is 38%. Other outcomes: December 31 47%, November 15 77%, November 30 62%. Prices update live.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on December 31, 2026, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
How does this market resolve?
Yes only if a ceasefire is in effect continuously through the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST; any Israeli or Iranian air strike or surface-to-surface missile/drone that impacts the other's territory kills it.
What does Cleus predict?
No ceasefire is in force since July 8, so every line needs a NEW truce plus zero qualifying strikes. Talks are live (Qatar 3-day draft, Vance-Rezaei channel) but Trump is weighing strikes — short dates are near-locks, December is a coin-flip at best.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.