Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
Odds right now: Yes 36%.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
35% he is out by Dec 31. Trump’s Nov 5 pledge to keep him outweighs private doubts; a House vote next week cannot remove him.
- Trump told ABC Nov 5 he has “every intention” of keeping Hegseth after calling the work “very good” on Nov 4.
- CBS reported Nov 4 Trump is asking advisers if Hegseth should stay; DeSantis is floated for a lame-duck confirmation.
- Massie will force a House impeachment vote the week of Nov 9; conviction needs 67 Senate votes and Republicans hold the chamber until Jan 3.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 16 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
In plain words: Yes if he ceases to be SecDef for any time by Dec 31, 2026 ET, or if resignation/removal is announced before the market ends Jan 1, 2027, even if the exit takes effect later.
Watch out: An announced future exit before Jan 1 resolves Yes even if he is still SecDef on Dec 31; House impeachment alone does not.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pete Hegseth's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Questions
What are the odds of Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
On Polymarket, Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? is trading at 36%. Cleus’s own estimate is 35%. Prices update live.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
How does this market resolve?
Yes if he ceases to be SecDef for any time by Dec 31, 2026 ET, or if resignation/removal is announced before the market ends Jan 1, 2027, even if the exit takes effect later.
What does Cleus predict?
35% he is out by Dec 31. Trump’s Nov 5 pledge to keep him outweighs private doubts; a House vote next week cannot remove him.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.