Next Prime Minister of Sweden
Odds right now: Ulf Kristersson 50%, Magdalena Andersson 50%, Ebba Busch <1%.
Centre-left bloc has 176/349 seats and Kristersson already resigned; Andersson is the most likely PM, but V-C deadlock and two failed confidence votes keep it genuinely open, so I shade her above market.
- Elisabeth Thand RingqvistCleus 4% vs mkt <1% +4
- Magdalena AnderssonCleus 52% vs mkt 50% +3
- Jimmie ÅkessonCleus <1% vs mkt <1%
- Ulf KristerssonCleus 38% vs mkt 51% −13
- Anna-Karin HattCleus 1% vs mkt <1%
- Ebba BuschCleus 2% vs mkt <1% +1
- Nooshi DadgostarCleus <1% vs mkt <1%
- Opposition S/V/C/MP won 176 seats vs 173 for Tidö parties on 13 Sep 2026; Kristersson resigned.
- Andersson's minority S cabinet and Thand Ringqvist's centrist attempt both failed confidence votes; Kristersson's mandate runs to 10 Nov.
- V won't back a government it's not in; C won't back one with V ministers — the core deadlock.
- 2026 Swedish general election - Wikipedia
- The 2026 elections | Sveriges riksdag
- 2026 Swedish government formation - Wikipedia
- Sweden General election 2026 (Riksdag) — Results | ElectioMap
- IFES Election Guide | Elections: Swedish Parliament 2026 General Riksdag
- Sweden’s PM resigns after centre-left bloc wins slim majority in election | Sweden | The G
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “Magdalena Andersson”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 18 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
- 91Geopolitics · 10 h ago
Next Prime Minister of Sweden: Ulf Kristersson
$7.2K on Yes at 29¢ · pays $25K
- Wallet opened the same day
- Only its 2nd market ever
- Most of the wallet's money went into this one bet
0xe52b…732anew that day · 2 mkts · +$1.5K P&L - 80Geopolitics · 7 h ago
Next Prime Minister of Sweden: Ulf Kristersson
$2.8K on Yes at 31¢ · pays $9.1K
- Wallet opened the same day
- Only its 2nd market ever
- Most of the wallet's money went into this one bet
0x7b47…a16cnew that day · 2 mkts · +$195 P&L - 65Geopolitics · 9 h ago
Next Prime Minister of Sweden: Magdalena Andersson
$1.0K on No at 29¢ · pays $3.4K
- Wallet opened the same day
- Only its 2nd market ever
0xe52b…732anew that day · 2 mkts · +$1.5K P&L - 63Geopolitics · 29 days ago
Next Prime Minister of Sweden: Ulf Kristersson
$3.3K on Yes at 18¢ · pays $18K
- Wallet is 24 days old
- Only its 2nd market ever
- Underdog at 18¢
0xc52c…ac6e24d old · 2 mkts · +$13K P&L - 50Geopolitics · 6 h ago
Next Prime Minister of Sweden: Ulf Kristersson
$866 on Yes at 32¢ · pays $2.7K
- Only its 2nd market ever
0x3394…0cad56d old · 2 mkts · −$55 P&L - 50Geopolitics · 3 h ago
Next Prime Minister of Sweden: Ulf Kristersson
$754 on Yes at 39¢ · pays $1.9K
- Wallet opened the same day
- Its first market ever
- Most of the wallet's money went into this one bet
0x9529…7738new that day · 1 mkt · +$293 P&L
How it actually resolves
In plain words: Resolves to whoever is formally appointed and sworn in as PM after the 13 Sep 2026 election; caretakers don't count, and 'Other' wins if nobody takes office by 30 Jun 2027.
Watch out: Kristersson is currently caretaker PM — he only counts if newly appointed and sworn in after the election, not by virtue of staying on.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue; the end date has passed and it is still open.
Full rules from Polymarket
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and assumes office as Prime Minister of Sweden following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must officially assume office. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister assumes office by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Sweden; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ask Cleus about this market
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Questions
What are the odds of Next Prime Minister of Sweden?
On Polymarket, Ulf Kristersson is trading at 50%. Cleus’s own estimate is 38%. Other outcomes: Ulf Kristersson 50%, Magdalena Andersson 50%, Ebba Busch <1%. Prices update live.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on July 1, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
How does this market resolve?
Resolves to whoever is formally appointed and sworn in as PM after the 13 Sep 2026 election; caretakers don't count, and 'Other' wins if nobody takes office by 30 Jun 2027.
What does Cleus predict?
Centre-left bloc has 176/349 seats and Kristersson already resigned; Andersson is the most likely PM, but V-C deadlock and two failed confidence votes keep it genuinely open, so I shade her above market.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.