Cleus
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Geopolitics

151 live markets · $8.1M traded in 24 h

Geopolitics Odds with an AI that keeps score.

Wars, ceasefires, strikes, leaders and deals between countries. Live Polymarket prices with Cleus’s own forecast, the unusual bets and the rules in plain words.

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Unusual bets

Bets in geopolitics that stand out

100Geopolitics · 8 h ago
Taipei Mayor Election Winner: Puma Shen
$23K on Yes at 30¢ · pays $78K
- Wallet opened yesterday
- Only its 2nd market ever
- Most of the wallet's money went into this one bet
0x208c…a3961d old · 2 mkts · −$1.6K P&L
91Geopolitics · 10 h ago
Next Prime Minister of Sweden: Ulf Kristersson
$7.2K on Yes at 29¢ · pays $25K
- Wallet opened the same day
- Only its 2nd market ever
- Most of the wallet's money went into this one bet
0xe52b…732anew that day · 2 mkts · +$1.5K P&L
80Geopolitics · 6 h ago
Next Prime Minister of Sweden: Ulf Kristersson
$2.8K on Yes at 31¢ · pays $9.1K
- Wallet opened the same day
- Only its 2nd market ever
- Most of the wallet's money went into this one bet
0x7b47…a16cnew that day · 2 mkts · +$195 P&L

All geopolitics markets

Every live Polymarket market worth watching, busiest first. Click any row for Cleus’s read, the chart, smart money and the rules in plain words.

Topic

Odds–¢

50 markets · loading the full board…Polymarket data · updated just now

Market

Benjamin Netanyahu

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? · Geopolitics

Rules risk

20%▼ 9.6—$519K$326KAwaiting result

November 7

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? · Geopolitics

94%▲ 2.488% −6$310K$82K36 h

Gadi Eizenkot

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? · Geopolitics

Rules risk

66%▲ 11—$303K$115KAwaiting result

November 15

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? · Geopolitics

77%▼ 3.072% −5$271K$77K9 days

Chiang Wan-an

Taipei Mayor Election Winner · Geopolitics

71%▲ 2.560% −10$254K$182K22 days

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

Geopolitics

42%▼ 8.052% +11$227K$133K55 days

Magdalena Andersson

Next Prime Minister of Sweden · Geopolitics

Rules risk

50%▼ 2552% +3$196K$44KAwaiting result

Puma Shen

Taipei Mayor Election Winner · Geopolitics

Unusual bet 100

29%▼ 2.435% +6$170K$379K22 days

Ulf Kristersson

Next Prime Minister of Sweden · Geopolitics

Unusual bet 91Rules risk

50%▲ 2738% −12$157K$60KAwaiting result

Avigdor Lieberman

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? · Geopolitics

Rules risk

6%▲ 0.7—$152K$130KAwaiting result

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Geopolitics

12%——$145K$432K55 days

November 8

US-Iran effective ceasefire continues through...? · Geopolitics

Unusual bet 58

83%▼ 2.5—$127K$34K2 days

December 31

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? · Geopolitics

47%▲ 2.038% −9$112K$122K55 days

December 31

Netanyahu out by...? · Geopolitics

38%▲ 14—$103K$71K55 days

November 6

US-Iran effective ceasefire continues through...? · Geopolitics

97%▲ 2.0—$101K$34K12 h

Marine Le Pen

Next French Presidential Election · Geopolitics

45%▲ 1.9—$95K$716K5 mo

Christine Lagarde

Next French Presidential Election · Geopolitics

7%——$92K$513K5 mo

November 30

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? · Geopolitics

62%▼ 1.058% −4$90K$101K24 days

Trump out as President before 2027?

Geopolitics

3%——$89K$311K55 days

December 31

Iran full airspace closure by...? · Geopolitics

28%▲ 3.5—$71K$35K55 days

November 15

US-Iran effective ceasefire continues through...? · Geopolitics

59%▼ 1.0—$71K$68K9 days

November 30

Iran leadership change by...? · Geopolitics

4%——$65K$159K24 days

November 30

Iran full airspace closure by...? · Geopolitics

17%▲ 1.5—$64K$37K24 days

David Lisnard

Next French Presidential Election · Geopolitics

15%▼ 1.1—$62K$714K5 mo

November 30

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? · Geopolitics

4%▲ 1.5—$59K$159K24 days

March 31, 2027

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...? · Geopolitics

22%▲ 4.0—$58K$113K5 mo

December 31

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? · Geopolitics

10%——$51K$191K55 days

December 31

France declares state of emergency by...? · Geopolitics

3%▼ 3.1—$50K$121K55 days

December 15

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? · Geopolitics

53%▼ 1.045% −8$50K$112K39 days

Jean-Luc Mélenchon

Next French Presidential Election · Geopolitics

13%——$48K$825K5 mo

December 31, 2027

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...? · Geopolitics

31%▼ 3.0—$46K$39K14 mo

Steve Witkoff

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31? · Geopolitics

40%▼ 1.0—$45K$28K55 days

November 30

US-Iran effective ceasefire continues through...? · Geopolitics

39%▼ 0.5—$44K$76K24 days

Druzkhivka

Which cities will Russia enter by December 31? · Geopolitics

17%▼ 16—$44K$17K55 days

Emmanuel Macron

Who will Trump speak to by November 30? · Geopolitics

56%▲ 5.0—$42K$52K24 days

December 31

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...? · Geopolitics

16%▲ 3.0—$37K$120K55 days

December 31, 2027

Will Russia invade another country by...? · Geopolitics

19%——$36K$55K14 mo

November 30, 2026

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...? · Geopolitics

26%——$34K$90K24 days

December 31

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...? · Geopolitics

12%▲ 2.0—$32K$118K55 days

November 22

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? · Geopolitics

69%——$31K$84K16 days

December 31

Saudi airspace closed by...? · Geopolitics

8%▼ 2.0—$28K$52K55 days

Mojtaba Khamenei

Iran leader end of 2026? · Geopolitics

91%▲ 0.5—$28K$80K55 days

December 31

Iran leadership change by...? · Geopolitics

9%——$27K$139K55 days

November 30

Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures) · Geopolitics

16%▲ 2.0—$26K$36K24 days

December 31, 2026

Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State by...? · Geopolitics

14%——$25K$55K55 days

Édouard Philippe

Next French Presidential Election · Geopolitics

11%▼ 1.0—$23K$631K5 mo

November 15, 2026

Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State by...? · Geopolitics

3%——$23K$104K9 days

December 31

NATO x Russia military clash by...? · Geopolitics

12%▼ 1.0—$22K$91K55 days

November 30, 2026

Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State by...? · Geopolitics

5%——$22K$64K24 days

China

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026? · Geopolitics

88%▲ 0.5—$22K$44K55 days

Bets in geopolitics that stand out

All geopolitics markets

Geopolitics events