
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Odds right now: October 31 >99%, November 2 >99%.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “October 31”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 20 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
- 50Geopolitics · 4 days ago
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?: November 2
$6.8K on Yes at 45¢ · pays $15K
- Wallet is 2 days old
0x68b6…7cd72d old · 15 mkts · +$71K P&L - 50Geopolitics · 3 days ago
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?: October 31
$727 on No at 7¢ · pays $11K
- Wallet is 5 days old
- Long shot at 7¢
0x8339…4efc5d old · 13 mkts · −$9.6K P&L - 50Geopolitics · 4 days ago
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?: October 31
$571 on No at 22¢ · pays $2.6K
- Wallet opened yesterday
- Underdog at 22¢
0x919f…c42e1d old · 20 mkts · −$8.6K P&L - 50Geopolitics · 4 days ago
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?: October 31
$526 on No at 23¢ · pays $2.3K
- Wallet is 2 days old
- Underdog at 23¢
0x68b6…7cd72d old · 15 mkts · +$71K P&L - 46Geopolitics · 4 days ago
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?: November 2
$2.3K on No at 60¢ · pays $3.9K
- Wallet opened the same day
0x919f…c42enew that day · 20 mkts · −$8.6K P&L - 46Geopolitics · 4 days ago
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?: October 31
$669 on Yes at 33¢ · pays $2.0K
- Wallet is 3 days old
0xefb7…08703d old · 105 mkts · +$27K P&L
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: The proposed result was disputed on UMA and is going to a vote.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
Ask Cleus about this market
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Questions
What are the odds of US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
On Polymarket, October 31 is trading at >99%. Other outcomes: October 31 >99%, November 2 >99%. Prices update live.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.