Putin out as President of Russia by...?
Odds right now: December 31, 2026 2%, June 30, 2027 10%, March 31, 2027 6%.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “June 30, 2027”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 11 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
- 80Geopolitics · 25 days ago
Putin out as President of Russia by...?: December 31, 2026
$3.9K on Yes at 4¢ · pays $88K
- Wallet opened the same day
- Its first market ever
- Most of the wallet's money went into this one bet
0x89b0…082dnew that day · 1 mkt · −$3.2K P&L - 80Geopolitics · 28 h ago
Putin out as President of Russia by...?: December 31, 2026
$3.5K on Yes at 2¢ · pays $171K
- Wallet is 6 days old
- Its first market ever
- Most of the wallet's money went into this one bet
0x961b…29116d old · 1 mkt · −$333 P&L - 54Geopolitics · 19 h ago
Putin out as President of Russia by...?: June 30, 2027
$3.3K on No at 92¢ · pays $3.6K
- Wallet is 5 days old
- Only 5 markets ever traded
0xa4f0…3a5d5d old · 5 mkts · −$114 P&L - 53Geopolitics · 14 days ago
Putin out as President of Russia by...?: June 30, 2027
$1.0K on Yes at 10¢ · pays $10K
- Only its 2nd market ever
- Long shot at 10¢
0xc810…2e98254d old · 2 mkts · −$30K P&L - 46Geopolitics · 23 days ago
Putin out as President of Russia by...?: June 30, 2027
$550 on Yes at 11¢ · pays $5.0K
- Only 3 markets ever traded
- Underdog at 11¢
0xa0e0…25e399d old · 3 mkts · −$667 P&L
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue; the end date has passed and it is still open; a result has been proposed and is in the challenge window.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ask Cleus about this market
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Analysis, not financial advice. Prediction markets can lose you money. Free: 3 questions a day.
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Questions
What are the odds of Putin out as President of Russia by...?
On Polymarket, December 31, 2026 is trading at 2%. Other outcomes: December 31, 2026 2%, June 30, 2027 10%, March 31, 2027 6%. Prices update live.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on July 1, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.