2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner
Odds right now: Kuomintang (KMT) 75%, Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) 26%, Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) <1%.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 10 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
- 61Geopolitics · 11 days ago
2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner: Kuomintang (KMT)
$2.0K on Yes at 70¢ · pays $2.9K
- Wallet opened yesterday
- Only 4 markets ever traded
0x9e05…e30e1d old · 4 mkts · −$791 P&L - 59Geopolitics · 6 days ago
2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner: Kuomintang (KMT)
$10.0K on Yes at 73¢ · pays $14K
- Wallet opened yesterday
0x241a…2e4d1d old · 7 mkts · −$1.4K P&L - 50Geopolitics · 26 days ago
2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner: Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)
$601 on Yes at 17¢ · pays $3.5K
- Wallet is 6 days old
- Only its 2nd market ever
- Underdog at 17¢
0x6b06…72f36d old · 2 mkts · +$1.0K P&L - 50Geopolitics · 8 days ago
2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner: Kuomintang (KMT)
$500 on Yes at 70¢ · pays $714
- Wallet opened the same day
0xb345…9482new that day · 15 mkts · +$446 P&L - 46Geopolitics · 23 days ago
2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner: Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)
$1.0K on Yes at 25¢ · pays $4.0K
- Wallet is 20 days old
- Underdog at 25¢
0xf96d…214b20d old · 9 mkts · −$240K P&L
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Full rules from Polymarket
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most head of local government (mayor or magistrate) elections for Taiwan’s major special municipalities, counties, and cities during these elections. A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party. Taiwan’s local governments include the following cities, special municipalities, and counties: Cities/special municipalities (mayoral elections): Taipei City, New Taipei City, Taoyuan City, Taichung City, Tainan City, Kaohsiung City, Keelung City, Hsinchu City, Chiayi City Counties (magistrate elections): Yilan County, Hsinchu County, Miaoli County, Changhua County, Nantou County, Yunlin County, Chiayi County, Pingtung County, Taitung County, Hualien County, Penghu County, Lienchiang County, Kinmen County Only elections for the listed cities, special municipalities or counties will be counted for this market. A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections. In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of relevant head of local government elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose English name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group. Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 Taiwanese local elections aren’t known by June 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 Taiwanese local elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
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Questions
What are the odds of 2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner?
On Polymarket, Kuomintang (KMT) is trading at 75%. Other outcomes: Kuomintang (KMT) 75%, Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) 26%, Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) <1%. Prices update live.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on November 29, 2026, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.