Who will receive the first mandate to form Israel's next government?
Odds right now: Gadi Eizenkot 98%, Other 50%, Person 1 50%.
Show 18 more outcomes
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “Other”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 16 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
- 50Politics · 10 days ago
Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?
$988 on Yes at 66¢ · pays $1.5K
- Wallet opened the same day
- Only its 2nd market ever
0x4cfe…81f2new that day · 2 mkts · −$148 P&L - 50Politics · 9 days ago
Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?
$850 on Yes at 63¢ · pays $1.4K
- Wallet opened yesterday
- Only its 2nd market ever
0x31f2…acb72d old · 2 mkts · −$253 P&L - 50Politics · 4 days ago
Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?
$700 on Yes at 11¢ · pays $6.1K
- Wallet is 8 days old
- Underdog at 11¢
0x9adc…748f8d old · 9 mkts · −$865 P&L
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue; the end date has passed and it is still open.
Full rules from Polymarket
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the first individual who is officially tasked by the President of Israel with forming a government following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the first individual who is officially tasked with forming a government after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally tasked with forming a government by the President of Israel. Recommendations made to the President by parties or members of the Knesset, and the President's consultations, will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no individual is tasked with forming a government by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Questions
What are the odds of Who will receive the first mandate to form Israel's next government?
On Polymarket, Gadi Eizenkot is trading at 98%. Other outcomes: Gadi Eizenkot 98%, Other 50%, Person 1 50%. Prices update live.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on October 28, 2026, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.