Alaska Senate Election Winner
Odds right now: Mary Peltola (D) 98%, Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) 2%, Ann Diener <1%.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “Mary Peltola (D)”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 24 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
- 65Politics · 2 days ago
Alaska Senate Election Winner: Mary Peltola (D)
$1.1K on No at 16¢ · pays $6.9K
- Wallet opened yesterday
- Only 4 markets ever traded
- Underdog at 16¢
0xbef0…7f691d old · 4 mkts · −$7.8K P&L - 61Politics · 4 days ago
Alaska Senate Election Winner: Sen. Dan Sullivan (R)
$3.4K on Yes at 28¢ · pays $12K
- Wallet opened the same day
0x8c54…e1a5new that day · 15 mkts · +$5.0K P&L - 61Politics · 4 days ago
Alaska Senate Election Winner: Mary Peltola (D)
$2.2K on No at 28¢ · pays $8.0K
- Wallet opened the same day
0x8c54…e1a5new that day · 15 mkts · +$5.0K P&L
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: The end date has passed and it is still open.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Ask Cleus about this market
Cleus has this market’s prices, rules, its own odds and the unusual bets in front of it, and searches the web and X for the rest.
Analysis, not financial advice. Prediction markets can lose you money. Free: 3 questions a day.
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Questions
What are the odds of Alaska Senate Election Winner?
On Polymarket, Mary Peltola (D) is trading at 98%. Other outcomes: Mary Peltola (D) 98%, Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) 2%, Ann Diener <1%. Prices update live.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on November 4, 2026, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.