Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?
Odds right now: Kash Patel 21%, Pete Hegseth 39%, Marco Rubio 14%.
Show 4 more outcomes
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “Marco Rubio”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 14 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
- 65Politics · 3 h ago
Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?: Scott Bessent
$2.3K on Yes at 7¢ · pays $34K
- Wallet opened the same day
- Its first market ever
- Most of the wallet's money went into this one bet
0x50b1…8b11new that day · 1 mkt · +$691 P&L
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
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Questions
What are the odds of Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?
On Polymarket, Kash Patel is trading at 21%. Other outcomes: Kash Patel 21%, Pete Hegseth 39%, Marco Rubio 14%. Prices update live.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.