Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map)
Odds right now: None 98%, AK 2%.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “None”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 28 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
- 71Politics · 3 days ago
Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
$3.0K on Yes at 10¢ · pays $30K
- Wallet opened the same day
- Long shot at 10¢
0xb82f…bc5anew that day · 10 mkts · +$2.1K P&L - 64Politics · 3 days ago
Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map): None
$6.8K on Yes at 34¢ · pays $20K
- Wallet opened the same day
0xb82f…bc5anew that day · 10 mkts · +$2.1K P&L - 56Politics · 3 days ago
Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
$2.0K on Yes at 10¢ · pays $20K
- Wallet is 4 days old
- Long shot at 10¢
0xefb7…08704d old · 105 mkts · +$27K P&L - 50Politics · 3 days ago
Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map): All 7
$1000 on Yes at 4¢ · pays $24K
- Wallet is 10 days old
- Long shot at 4¢
0x03be…cb2910d old · 7 mkts · −$9.1K P&L - 50Politics · 4 days ago
Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map): AK, IA, KS, ME, OH, TX
$1000 on Yes at 4¢ · pays $28K
- Wallet opened the same day
- Most of the wallet's money went into this one bet
- Long shot at 4¢
0xbc75…805bnew that day · 6 mkts · −$1.7K P&L - 50Politics · 3 days ago
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?
$900 on Yes at 1¢ · pays $69K
- Wallet is 8 days old
- Long shot at 1¢
0x233b…f88c8d old · 15 mkts · −$13K P&L - 50Politics · 3 days ago
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, and Kansas, and lose Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
$696 on Yes at 2¢ · pays $39K
- Wallet is 9 days old
- Only 5 markets ever traded
- Long shot at 2¢
0x2342…dd819d old · 5 mkts · −$31K P&L - 50Politics · 4 days ago
Will Republicans win Kansas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
$564 on Yes at 3¢ · pays $18K
- Wallet is 4 days old
- Long shot at 3¢
0x8339…4efc4d old · 13 mkts · −$9.6K P&L - 50Politics · 3 days ago
Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
$500 on Yes at 10¢ · pays $5.0K
- Wallet opened the same day
- Long shot at 10¢
0x5135…6131new that day · 8 mkts · +$16K P&L
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: The end date has passed and it is still open.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve according to which of the United States Senate general elections in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio (special election), and Texas, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, are won by the Republican candidate, inclusive of any potential runoffs. Each listed outcome names the exact set of these states in which the Republican candidate wins. An outcome will resolve to "Yes" only if the Republican candidate wins every state it names and does not win any of the other states covered by this market. A state counts as not won by the Republican candidate if any other candidate wins it, including a Democratic, independent, or third-party candidate, or if its results cannot be determined by March 31, 2027. A candidate will be considered to represent the Republican Party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of the Republican Party. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered to represent the Republican Party regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
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Questions
What are the odds of Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map)?
On Polymarket, None is trading at 98%. Other outcomes: None 98%, AK 2%. Prices update live.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on November 3, 2026, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.