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Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?

Odds right now: Ken Paxton >99%, Mark Carney 10%.

PoliticsEnds in Awaiting result$845K traded$640K in 24h$426K liquidityDisputed
OutcomeMarketCleus24h
Ken Paxton
>99%—▲ 51.9
Mark Carney
10%—▲ 7.0
Last 30 days0%50%100%Oct 7Nov 6
Ken Paxton >99%Mark Carney 10%
See it on Polymarket ↗
Cleus’s read

Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…

Usually 15–40 seconds.

Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.

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Smart money

Which side the winners are on

The top holders of “Mark Carney”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 11 of them have made $25K+.

Wallets with $25K+ all-time profit ($126 held)
Yes 85%15% No
All top holders ($1.4K held)
Yes 9%91% No

When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.

HolderHoldsAll-time P&L
0x44a0…76e5 No$564$8.1K
0xdec2…b015 No$465$12K
0xad53…ef24 Yes$42$282K
0x38f5…6824 Yes$42$113K
0x0c28…9844 No$36$7.7K
0x0e6b…3a4c No$29−$4.6K
0x575b…d2ba No$29−$169
0xe856…3789 No$24−$675
0x56ab…784e No$18−$57K
0x7c14…5783 No$18−$41K
Unusual bets

Big bets in this market that stand out

Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.

  • 47Politics · 24 h ago

    Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?: Ken Paxton

    $2.6K on Yes at 49¢ · pays $5.2K

    • Wallet is 4 days old
    0x6fa6…a5704d old · 11 mkts · +$5.9K P&L
  • 47Politics · 21 h ago

    Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?: Ken Paxton

    $604 on No at 60¢ · pays $1.0K

    • Wallet is 3 days old
    0xe620…629b3d old · 13 mkts · +$5.1K P&L
Rules

How it actually resolves

The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.

Rules risk: The proposed result was disputed on UMA and is going to a vote.

Full rules from Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults the listed individual between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either made in a public setting, published by the speaker, or on the record to media, and the direct language of which is made publicly available within the specified timeframe. Pre-recorded public statements will count for the date (ET) that they are made publicly available. Statements made in private that are subsequently leaked will not qualify, even if credibly reported. Narrations and paraphrasings do not qualify. Images and videos posted on verified social media accounts will only qualify if they contain insulting language clearly directed at the individual, whether within the content itself or in an accompanying caption. Language within the content of a video will only qualify if Donald Trump is clearly portrayed as saying it. Insulting language within the content of a video said by anyone other than Donald Trump or a portrayal thereof will not qualify. A quote post will qualify if added language independently qualifies as an insult, or endorses insulting language directed at the individual within the quoted post; a repost of another account's post will not qualify. A public statement qualifies as an insult if it mocks, degrades, or disparages the individual either personally or professionally. This includes calling the individual a clearly insulting trait (e.g., weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure), using an insulting nickname (e.g., Crooked Hillary), using other clearly derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a clearly derogatory manner (e.g., “He isn’t smart”, “He has no judgment”). Disparaging the individual in their professional capacity will qualify (e.g., "He is a disaster candidate," "He is terrible at his job"); however, negative comments directed at the individual's specific actions, policies, or decisions will not qualify (e.g., "He has bad policies," "He is wrong about healthcare"). A statement made in direct reference to the individual will qualify even if they are not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. The resolution sources will be public statements made by Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.

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Questions

What are the odds of Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?

On Polymarket, Ken Paxton is trading at >99%. Other outcomes: Ken Paxton >99%, Mark Carney 10%. Prices update live.

When does this market end?

It is scheduled to end on October 31, 2026, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.

What does Cleus predict?

Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.

Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.