Fed Decision in December?
Odds right now: 25 bps increase 79%, No change 21%, 25 bps decrease <1%.
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
80% on a 25bp December hike. Today's jobs beat lifted futures toward 80%, and the September dots already had one more rise as the year-end median.
- No changeCleus 18% vs mkt 21% −2
- 25 bps increaseCleus 80% vs mkt 78% +3
- Oct 28 hold was 10-2 at 3.75-4.00%; Cook and Hammack wanted +25bp. Sep SEP median end-2026 rate was 4.1%, with 16 of 18 above current.
- Nov 6: payrolls +165k vs ~65k forecast; unemployment fell to 4.1%. Reuters said futures rose to about an 80% chance of a December hike.
- Sep CPI was 3.7% YoY (core 2.6%). Warsh will not pre-commit; October CPI on Nov 10 is the main remaining swing factor.
- https://x.com/elerianm/status/2115074551776444564
- https://petersworld.org/fed-rate-decisions/
- https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-likely-go-into-wait-and-see-mode-rates-2026-10-28/
- https://www.reuters.com/business/us-job-growth-beats-expectations-october-unemployment-rat
- https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.a.htm
- https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/cp/rates.htm
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “25 bps increase”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 8 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
In plain words: Change, in bps, in the upper bound of the fed funds target range versus the level before the Dec 8-9, 2026 meeting, from that FOMC statement. Off-grid moves round up to the nearest 25.
Watch out: This contract is only a 25bp rise, not any hike. A 50bp move is a different bracket. No statement by the next meeting's end date resolves as No change.
Full rules from Polymarket
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
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Questions
What are the odds of Fed Decision in December?
On Polymarket, 25 bps increase is trading at 79%. Cleus’s own estimate is 80%. Other outcomes: 25 bps increase 79%, No change 21%, 25 bps decrease <1%. Prices update live.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on December 10, 2026, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
How does this market resolve?
Change, in bps, in the upper bound of the fed funds target range versus the level before the Dec 8-9, 2026 meeting, from that FOMC statement. Off-grid moves round up to the nearest 25.
What does Cleus predict?
80% on a 25bp December hike. Today's jobs beat lifted futures toward 80%, and the September dots already had one more rise as the year-end median.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.