Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
Odds right now: ↑$3.0T 7%, ↑$4.0T 2%, ↑$2.0T 33%.
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “↑$3.0T”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 5 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
- 79Economy · 16 days ago
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?: ↑$2.5T
$8.5K on No at 77¢ · pays $11K
- Wallet opened the same day
- Only 4 markets ever traded
- A quarter or more of the wallet's money in this bet
0xec62…8aefnew that day · 4 mkts · +$5.6K P&L - 75Economy · 16 days ago
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?: ↑$2.0T
$4.0K on No at 40¢ · pays $10K
- Wallet opened the same day
- Only 4 markets ever traded
0xec62…8aefnew that day · 4 mkts · +$5.6K P&L - 65Economy · 21 days ago
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?: ↑$2.0T
$1.9K on No at 40¢ · pays $4.7K
- Wallet is 2 days old
- Only 2 markets ever traded
- A quarter or more of the wallet's money in this bet
0xc48d…22d32d old · 2 mkts · +$0 P&L
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Resolution source: fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data?
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, is equal to or beyond (equal to or above for ↑ HIGH valuations, equal to or below for ↓ LOW valuations) the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
Ask Cleus about this market
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Questions
What are the odds of Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
On Polymarket, ↑$3.0T is trading at 7%. Other outcomes: ↑$3.0T 7%, ↑$4.0T 2%, ↑$2.0T 33%. Prices update live.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on January 5, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.