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Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

Odds right now: SpaceX 91%, Anthropic 9%, OpenAI <1%.

EconomyEnds in 56 days$7.7M traded$102K in 24h$858K liquidity
OutcomeMarketCleus24h
SpaceX
91%—▲ 8.5
Anthropic
9%—▼ 6.8
OpenAI
<1%——
ByteDance
<1%——
Stripe
<1%——
Databricks
<1%——
SHEIN
<1%——
Waymo
<1%——
Revolut
<1%——
Discord
<1%——
Perplexity AI
<1%——
Kraken
<1%——
Last 30 days0%50%100%Oct 7Nov 6
SpaceX 91%Anthropic 9%OpenAI <1%ByteDance <1%
See it on Polymarket ↗
Cleus’s read

Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…

Usually 15–40 seconds.

Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.

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Smart money

Which side the winners are on

The top holders of “SpaceX”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 24 of them have made $25K+.

Wallets with $25K+ all-time profit ($337K held)
Yes 94%6% No
All top holders ($428K held)
Yes 89%11% No

When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.

HolderHoldsAll-time P&L
0x3a8a…7699 Yes$62K$1.7M
0x4755…4158 Yes$54K$199K
0x4d49…7450 Yes$46K$50K
0x134a…9e42 Yes$45K$124K
0x9ee4…697b Yes$32K−$101K
0xdf1c…2ebb Yes$28K$77K
0x5c14…cc49 Yes$24K$195K
0xa5ef…2966 No$23K—
0xb9ee…8c9c Yes$14K−$9.9K
0x708d…ea78 Yes$12K$36K
Unusual bets

Big bets in this market that stand out

Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.

Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.

Rules

How it actually resolves

The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.

Full rules from Polymarket

This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026. This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used. A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

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Cleus has this market’s prices, rules, its own odds and the unusual bets in front of it, and searches the web and X for the rest.

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Questions

What are the odds of Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

On Polymarket, SpaceX is trading at 91%. Other outcomes: SpaceX 91%, Anthropic 9%, OpenAI <1%. Prices update live.

When does this market end?

It is scheduled to end on January 2, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.

What does Cleus predict?

Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.

Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.