Will Trump veto a bill by February 1, 2027?
Odds right now: Yes 46%.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
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Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
Will Trump veto a bill by February 1, 2027: the story so far
Updated November 12, 2026 at 8:51 PM UTC from live market data.
As of November 12, 2026, Polymarket traders give “Will Trump veto a bill by February 1, 2027” a 46% chance. The price has fallen 5 points since November 4, from 51% to 46%. In the last 24 hours it lost 6 points.
$28K has been traded on this event, $5.6K of it in the last 24 hours, and $28K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “Will Trump veto a bill by February 1, 2027”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have 54% of their money on No.
Trading is scheduled to end on February 2, 2027. How it resolves: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump vetoes any bill or joint resolution between market creation and February 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “Will Trump veto a bill by February 1, 2027?”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 10 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump vetoes any bill or joint resolution between market creation and February 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A veto means the President returns a bill or joint resolution to Congress without signature, with objections, as provided in Article I, Section 7 of the U.S. Constitution, or a pocket veto. A pocket veto will be considered to have occurred on the date the bill or joint resolution is presented to the President, even if the pocket veto does not take effect until after February 1, 2027. In the event of ambiguity over the timing or effect of a pocket veto, this market will remain open until the status of the pocket veto is known. Veto threats, Statements of Administration Policy, and signing statements will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government, including Congress.gov and the White House; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Questions
What are the odds of Will Trump veto a bill by February 1, 2027?
On Polymarket, Will Trump veto a bill by February 1, 2027? is trading at 46%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with Will Trump veto a bill by February 1, 2027?
As of November 12, 2026, Polymarket traders give “Will Trump veto a bill by February 1, 2027” a 46% chance. The price has fallen 5 points since November 4, from 51% to 46%. In the last 24 hours it lost 6 points.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on February 2, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.