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Trump declares election interference national emergency by...?

Odds right now: December 31 3%.

PoliticsEnds in 55 days$595K traded$16K in 24h$106K liquidityRules risk
OutcomeMarketCleus24h
December 31
3%—▼ 1.8
Price history
0%21%43%Oct 7Nov 6
December 31 3%
Order book
OutcomeSpreadBuy to +2¢Sell to −2¢
December 310.4¢$3.0K$2.9K

How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.

See it on Polymarket ↗
Cleus’s read

Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…

Usually 15–40 seconds.

Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.

Deep researchPremium

A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.

Smart money

Which side the winners are on

The top holders of “December 31”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 10 of them have made $25K+.

Wallets with $25K+ all-time profit ($63K held)
Yes 1%99% No
All top holders ($105K held)
Yes 2%98% No

When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.

HolderHoldsAll-time P&L
0xb5b8…f0cb No$34K$69K
0x0191…541d No$17K$128K
0xe5c2…2ab0 No$12K−$1.5M
0x2a01…6397 No$11K$269K
0x3006…e9f4 No$4.9K—
0x6c10…df5c No$4.1K—
0x2136…ee56 No$2.6K—
0xb1a1…d308 No$2.0K—
0xeca0…e8f8 No$1.9K—
0xd0db…b117 No$1.4K—
Unusual bets

Big bets in this market that stand out

Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.

Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.

Rules

How it actually resolves

The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.

Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue; the end date has passed and it is still open; a result has been proposed and is in the challenge window.

Full rules from Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Donald Trump formally declares a national emergency, pursuant to the National Emergencies Act, explicitly relating to interference in U.S. elections or election processes, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying declaration must include formal language stating that a national emergency exists and must be issued under the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. § 1621 et seq.). The declaration must explicitly reference interference in U.S. elections, election processes, election systems, voting procedures, ballots, or voting machines as the basis for the emergency. Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act, or other actions that merely reference election interference without declaring a national emergency will not qualify. Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to election interference. The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official White House publications, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Ask Cleus about this market

Cleus has this market’s prices, rules, its own odds and the unusual bets in front of it, and searches the web and X for the rest.

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Questions

What are the odds of Trump declares election interference national emergency by...?

On Polymarket, December 31 is trading at 3%. Prices update live.

When does this market end?

It is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.

What does Cleus predict?

Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.

Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.