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Next Prime Minister of Spain?

Odds right now: Alberto Núñez Feijóo 89%, Person H 50%, Person I 50%.

PoliticsEnds in 23 days$2.9M traded$109K in 24h$1.8M liquidityWatch the rulesUnusual bets
OutcomeMarketCleus24h
Alberto Núñez Feijóo
89%—▼ 0.5
Person H
50%——
Person I
50%——
Person J
50%——
Person K
50%——
Person L
50%——
Person M
50%——
Person N
50%——
Person O
50%——
Person P
50%——
Person Q
50%——
Person R
50%——
Show 18 more outcomes
Person S
50%——
Person T
50%——
Person U
50%——
Person V
50%——
Person W
50%——
Person X
50%——
Person Y
50%——
Person Z
50%——
Person AA
50%——
Person AB
50%——
Person AC
50%——
Person AD
50%——
Person AE
50%——
Person AF
50%——
Person AG
50%——
Person AH
50%——
Person AI
50%——
Person AJ
50%——
Last 30 days69%82%94%Oct 7Nov 6
Alberto Núñez Feijóo 89%
See it on Polymarket ↗
Cleus’s read

Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…

Usually 15–40 seconds.

Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.

Deep researchPremium

A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.

Smart money

Which side the winners are on

The top holders of “Alberto Núñez Feijóo”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 15 of them have made $25K+.

Wallets with $25K+ all-time profit ($109K held)
Yes 94%6% No
All top holders ($289K held)
Yes 88%12% No

When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.

HolderHoldsAll-time P&L
0x766d…10de Yes$90K$15K
0x49b6…170c Yes$24K$104K
0xa5ef…2966 No$21K—
0x94b9…2592 Yes$19K$84K
0x2651…3471 Yes$17K$46K
0xd941…f940 Yes$15K$9.9K
0x4d01…1645 Yes$14K$48K
0x9604…fc1d Yes$12K−$212K
0x1359…092e Yes$11K−$9.4K
0xcf19…6402 Yes$7.8K$234K
Unusual bets

Big bets in this market that stand out

Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.

  • 84Politics · 30 days ago

    Next Prime Minister of Spain?: Alberto Núñez Feijóo

    $5.2K on No at 27¢ · pays $19K

    • Wallet is 3 days old
    • Only its 2nd market ever
    • Most of the wallet's money went into this one bet
    0xdbb3…cc933d old · 2 mkts · −$3.5K P&L
  • 65Politics · 2 h ago

    Next Prime Minister of Spain?: Alberto Núñez Feijóo

    $1.9K on No at 11¢ · pays $17K

    • Wallet opened the same day
    • Only its 2nd market ever
    • Most of the wallet's money went into this one bet
    0xbcc1…a860new that day · 2 mkts · +$66 P&L
  • 63Politics · 29 days ago

    Next Prime Minister of Spain?: Pedro Sánchez

    $2.4K on Yes at 24¢ · pays $10.0K

    • Wallet opened the same day
    • Underdog at 24¢
    0xa6c7…3132new that day · 16 mkts · −$1.3K P&L
  • 50Politics · 28 days ago

    Next Prime Minister of Spain?: Pedro Sánchez

    $880 on Yes at 18¢ · pays $5.0K

    • Its first market ever
    • Underdog at 18¢
    0x7deb…4607137d old · 1 mkt · −$1.6K P&L
  • 50Politics · 9 days ago

    Next Prime Minister of Spain?: Alberto Núñez Feijóo

    $879 on No at 18¢ · pays $4.9K

    • Wallet is 19 days old
    • Underdog at 18¢
    • Proven winner: +$214K all-time
    0x25d7…617619d old · 6 mkts · +$214K P&L
  • 50Politics · 30 days ago

    Next Prime Minister of Spain?: Pedro Sánchez

    $798 on Yes at 24¢ · pays $3.3K

    • Only its 2nd market ever
    • Most of the wallet's money went into this one bet
    • Underdog at 24¢
    0x947e…354c534d old · 2 mkts · −$494 P&L
  • 50Politics · 25 days ago

    Next Prime Minister of Spain?: Alberto Núñez Feijóo

    $722 on No at 21¢ · pays $3.4K

    • Wallet opened yesterday
    • Its first market ever
    • Most of the wallet's money went into this one bet
    0xdb10…62092d old · 1 mkt · −$418 P&L
  • 50Politics · 2 h ago

    Next Prime Minister of Spain?: Pedro Sánchez

    $618 on Yes at 8¢ · pays $7.4K

    • Its first market ever
    • Long shot at 8¢
    0x5251…89d6337d old · 1 mkt · +$196 P&L
  • 50Politics · 19 days ago

    Next Prime Minister of Spain?: Pedro Sánchez

    $605 on Yes at 16¢ · pays $3.8K

    • Only 3 markets ever traded
    • Most of the wallet's money went into this one bet
    • Underdog at 16¢
    0xf903…1e30109d old · 3 mkts · −$597 P&L
Rules

How it actually resolves

The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.

Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.

Full rules from Polymarket

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must receive a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Ask Cleus about this market

Cleus has this market’s prices, rules, its own odds and the unusual bets in front of it, and searches the web and X for the rest.

Analysis, not financial advice. Prediction markets can lose you money. Free: 3 questions a day.

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Questions

What are the odds of Next Prime Minister of Spain?

On Polymarket, Alberto Núñez Feijóo is trading at 89%. Other outcomes: Alberto Núñez Feijóo 89%, Person H 50%, Person I 50%. Prices update live.

When does this market end?

It is scheduled to end on November 30, 2026, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.

What does Cleus predict?

Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.

Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.