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Spain General Election: Broad Front (FA) # of seats?

Odds right now: 9-11 44%, 12-14 18%, 18+ 7%.

GeopoliticsEnds in 22 days$19K traded$7.7K in 24h$28K liquidityWatch the rules
OutcomeMarketCleus24h
9-11
44%—▼ 11.0
12-14
18%—▲ 1.5
18+
7%—▼ 1.3
15-17
5%——
6-8
5%—▼ 24.0
<6
<1%——
Price history
0%37%74%Oct 21Nov 8
9-11 44%12-14 18%18+ 7%15-17 5%
Where the money sits
6-8$12K
<6$12K
18+$1.3K
15-17$1.1K
12-14$965
9-11$281

Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.

Order book
OutcomeSpreadBuy to +2¢Sell to −2¢
9-1113.0¢$10$57
12-1413.0¢$27$2
18+10.9¢$39$6
15-177.4¢$20$4
6-84.0¢$12$17
<60.1¢$4$4

How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.

Cleus’s read

Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…

Usually 15–40 seconds.

Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.

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Smart money

Which side the winners are on

The top holders of “6-8”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 8 of them have made $25K+.

Wallets with $25K+ all-time profit ($2.0K held)
Yes 2%98% No
All top holders ($2.5K held)
Yes 5%95% No

When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.

HolderHoldsAll-time P&L
0x1ee9…197f No$1.9K$216K
0xa5ef…2966 No$325—
0x9163…82ae Yes$52$23K
0x0414…be21 No$48$21K
0xd218…b5c9 No$38−$50K
0xdf0e…c02b Yes$16$56K
0xad53…ef24 Yes$13$281K
0x5412…484a No$10—
0x21ff…0d71 Yes$7$465K
0x4959…a6f5 Yes$5$50K
Unusual bets

Big bets in this market that stand out

Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.

Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.

Rules

How it actually resolves

The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.

Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.

Full rules from Polymarket

Legislative elections to elect the 350 members of the Congress of Deputies of Spain are scheduled to take place on November 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Broad Front (FA) in the Congress of Deputies of Spain as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. Seats and votes will be attributed according to the electoral list on which they were obtained, as reported in the official results, regardless of the party membership of individual candidates. Lists will be attributed as follows: PSOE: lists of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party, including the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC) lists in Catalonia. PP: lists of the People's Party, including the joint UPN–PP list in Navarre. Broad Front (FA): all Broad Front lists, including Catalunya en Comú in Catalonia, Compromís–Valencian Front in the Valencian Community, and Canarian People’s Unity (UPC) in the Canary Islands. ERC: Republican Left of Catalonia lists, including the joint ERC–Podem lists in Catalonia. Podemos: only lists presented by Podemos on its own. CCa: Canarian Coalition lists, including the joint CCa–1º CAN lists in the Canary Islands. Any other list will be attributed to the party or coalition that presents it, as named in the official proclamation of candidacies. Electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent changes in party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership will not be considered. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Spanish Ministry of the Interior (https://infoelectoral.interior.gob.es/).

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Questions

What are the odds of Spain General Election: Broad Front (FA) # of seats?

On Polymarket, 9-11 is trading at 44%. Other outcomes: 9-11 44%, 12-14 18%, 18+ 7%. Prices update live.

When does this market end?

It is scheduled to end on November 30, 2026, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.

What does Cleus predict?

Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.

Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.