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JD Vance resigns as Vice President by...?

Odds right now: December 31, 2026 5%, December 31, 2027 11%.

PoliticsEnds in 14 mo$7.5K traded$4.9K in 24h$9.9K liquidityWatch the rules
OutcomeMarketCleus24h
December 31, 2026
5%—▲ 2.5
December 31, 2027
11%—▼ 8.5
Price history
0%30%60%Nov 10Nov 12
December 31, 2026 5%December 31, 2027 11%
Where the money sits
December 31, 2026$6.7K
December 31, 2027$3.4K

Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.

Order book
OutcomeSpreadBuy to +2¢Sell to −2¢
December 31, 20263.9¢$248$260
December 31, 20271.0¢$10$17

How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.

Cleus’s read

Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…

Usually 15–40 seconds.

Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.

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What’s going on

JD Vance resigns as Vice President by: the story so far

Updated November 12, 2026 at 3:23 PM UTC from live market data.

As of November 12, 2026, Polymarket prices 2 separate markets for “JD Vance resigns as Vice President by...”: “December 31, 2026” at 5% and “December 31, 2027” at 11%. December 31, 2026 has fallen 46 points since November 10, from 51% to 5%. December 31, 2027 has fallen 40 points since November 10, from 51% to 11%. In the last 24 hours December 31, 2026 gained 2 points.

$7.5K has been traded on this event, $4.9K of it in the last 24 hours, and $9.9K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “December 31, 2026”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have nearly all of their money on No.

Trading is scheduled to end on January 1, 2028. How it resolves: This market resolves to “Yes” if J.D. Vance’s resignation as U.S. Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.

Smart money

Which side the winners are on

The top holders of “December 31, 2026”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 8 of them have made $25K+.

Wallets with $25K+ all-time profit ($4.5K held)
Yes 0%100% No
All top holders ($4.7K held)
Yes 5%95% No

When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.

HolderHoldsAll-time P&L
0x0dde…94c3 No$1.6K$63K
0x836f…906e No$1.3K$46K
0x8190…b247 No$672$44K
0xe749…f771 No$634$93K
0xd0db…b117 No$190$57K
0x35ab…a400 Yes$187$5.2K
0x57b0…76f4 No$89$124K
0x8304…f086 No$29−$543
0x7495…7fcf Yes$11$140K
0xad53…ef24 Yes$10$266K
Unusual bets

Big bets in this market that stand out

Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.

Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.

Rules

How it actually resolves

The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.

Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.

Full rules from Polymarket

This market resolves to “Yes” if J.D. Vance’s resignation as U.S. Vice President is officially announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The resignation will be considered to be announced when J.D. Vance, the White House, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that J.D. Vance has resigned or will resign from the position of U.S. Vice President. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when J.D. Vance formally leaves the position. Only announcements of J.D. Vance's departure through self-initiated means qualify. Self-initiated means include retirement, mutual agreement, or other self-initiated departures, including a resignation he was asked or directed to submit. Announcements of firing, dismissal, or other externally-imposed departures do not qualify. Only announcements which are framed as announcing a resignation intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither “I will leave office in 2 years,” nor “I will not be in office forever,” would qualify). Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to J.D. Vance’s duties as U.S. Vice President do not qualify. The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that J.D. Vance is considering or open to resigning; conditional statements that J.D. Vance will resign only if certain conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that J.D. Vance plans to resign; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than J.D. Vance, the White House, or their respective authorized representatives. As J.D. Vance holds the position of U.S. Vice President on a predefined term scheduled to end on January 20, 2029, only announcements that he will resign the position prior to the scheduled end of his term qualify. If J.D. Vance formally resigns as U.S. Vice President before the end of his scheduled term without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve to “Yes” if a consensus of credible reporting confirms the resignation by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. This market will immediately resolve to “No” if J.D. Vance is either promoted to be President of the United States or leaves office for any reason other than resignation. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from J.D. Vance and the White House; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Ask Cleus about this market

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Questions

What are the odds of JD Vance resigns as Vice President by...?

On Polymarket, December 31, 2026 is trading at 5%. Other outcomes: December 31, 2026 5%, December 31, 2027 11%. Prices update live.

What’s going on with JD Vance resigns as Vice President by...?

As of November 12, 2026, Polymarket prices 2 separate markets for “JD Vance resigns as Vice President by...”: “December 31, 2026” at 5% and “December 31, 2027” at 11%. December 31, 2026 has fallen 46 points since November 10, from 51% to 5%. December 31, 2027 has fallen 40 points since November 10, from 51% to 11%. In the last 24 hours December 31, 2026 gained 2 points.

When does this market end?

It is scheduled to end on January 1, 2028, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.

What does Cleus predict?

Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.

Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.