
JD Vance resigns as Vice President by...?
Odds right now: December 31, 2026 5%, December 31, 2027 11%.
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
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JD Vance resigns as Vice President by: the story so far
Updated November 12, 2026 at 3:23 PM UTC from live market data.
As of November 12, 2026, Polymarket prices 2 separate markets for “JD Vance resigns as Vice President by...”: “December 31, 2026” at 5% and “December 31, 2027” at 11%. December 31, 2026 has fallen 46 points since November 10, from 51% to 5%. December 31, 2027 has fallen 40 points since November 10, from 51% to 11%. In the last 24 hours December 31, 2026 gained 2 points.
$7.5K has been traded on this event, $4.9K of it in the last 24 hours, and $9.9K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “December 31, 2026”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have nearly all of their money on No.
Trading is scheduled to end on January 1, 2028. How it resolves: This market resolves to “Yes” if J.D. Vance’s resignation as U.S. Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “December 31, 2026”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 8 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market resolves to “Yes” if J.D. Vance’s resignation as U.S. Vice President is officially announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The resignation will be considered to be announced when J.D. Vance, the White House, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that J.D. Vance has resigned or will resign from the position of U.S. Vice President. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when J.D. Vance formally leaves the position. Only announcements of J.D. Vance's departure through self-initiated means qualify. Self-initiated means include retirement, mutual agreement, or other self-initiated departures, including a resignation he was asked or directed to submit. Announcements of firing, dismissal, or other externally-imposed departures do not qualify. Only announcements which are framed as announcing a resignation intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither “I will leave office in 2 years,” nor “I will not be in office forever,” would qualify). Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to J.D. Vance’s duties as U.S. Vice President do not qualify. The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that J.D. Vance is considering or open to resigning; conditional statements that J.D. Vance will resign only if certain conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that J.D. Vance plans to resign; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than J.D. Vance, the White House, or their respective authorized representatives. As J.D. Vance holds the position of U.S. Vice President on a predefined term scheduled to end on January 20, 2029, only announcements that he will resign the position prior to the scheduled end of his term qualify. If J.D. Vance formally resigns as U.S. Vice President before the end of his scheduled term without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve to “Yes” if a consensus of credible reporting confirms the resignation by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. This market will immediately resolve to “No” if J.D. Vance is either promoted to be President of the United States or leaves office for any reason other than resignation. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from J.D. Vance and the White House; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Questions
What are the odds of JD Vance resigns as Vice President by...?
On Polymarket, December 31, 2026 is trading at 5%. Other outcomes: December 31, 2026 5%, December 31, 2027 11%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with JD Vance resigns as Vice President by...?
As of November 12, 2026, Polymarket prices 2 separate markets for “JD Vance resigns as Vice President by...”: “December 31, 2026” at 5% and “December 31, 2027” at 11%. December 31, 2026 has fallen 46 points since November 10, from 51% to 5%. December 31, 2027 has fallen 40 points since November 10, from 51% to 11%. In the last 24 hours December 31, 2026 gained 2 points.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on January 1, 2028, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.