How many UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?
Odds right now: 6 96%, 7 2%, 8 <1%.
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
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Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
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How many UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026: the story so far
Updated November 12, 2026 at 11:22 PM UTC from live market data.
As of November 12, 2026, Polymarket traders see 6 as the most likely outcome at 96%, ahead of 7 (2%) and 8 (<1%). 5 outcomes are trading in all. 6 has risen 39 points since October 13, from 57% to 96%. 7 has fallen 37 points since October 13, from 39% to 2%, after peaking at 43% on October 21. In the last 24 hours 6 gained 10 points.
$91K has been traded on this event, $11K of it in the last 24 hours, and $58K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “6”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have nearly all of their money on Yes.
Trading is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027. How it resolves: This market will resolve according to the total number of UK parliamentary by-elections held in 2026. Qualifying by-elections must be elections to the UK House of Commons for a vacant parliamentary seat, with polling day scheduled and held within the 2026 calendar year. Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “6”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 10 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the total number of UK parliamentary by-elections held in 2026. Qualifying by-elections must be elections to the UK House of Commons for a vacant parliamentary seat, with polling day scheduled and held within the 2026 calendar year. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
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Questions
What are the odds of How many UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?
On Polymarket, 6 is trading at 96%. Other outcomes: 6 96%, 7 2%, 8 <1%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with How many UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?
As of November 12, 2026, Polymarket traders see 6 as the most likely outcome at 96%, ahead of 7 (2%) and 8 (<1%). 5 outcomes are trading in all. 6 has risen 39 points since October 13, from 57% to 96%. 7 has fallen 37 points since October 13, from 39% to 2%, after peaking at 43% on October 21. In the last 24 hours 6 gained 10 points.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.