Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?
Odds right now: Yes 20%.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
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Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31: the story so far
Updated November 10, 2026 at 3:07 PM UTC from live market data.
As of November 10, 2026, Polymarket traders give “Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31” a 20% chance. The price has briefly spiked to 26% on November 6 but is back near 19%, about where it was on October 11. In the last 24 hours it lost 4 points.
$27K has been traded on this event, $3.8K of it in the last 24 hours, and $13K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have 92% of their money on No.
Trading is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027. How it resolves: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Howard Lutnick ceases to be the US Secretary of Commerce for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 3 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Howard Lutnick ceases to be the US Secretary of Commerce for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Lutnick's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Questions
What are the odds of Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?
On Polymarket, Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31? is trading at 20%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?
As of November 10, 2026, Polymarket traders give “Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31” a 20% chance. The price has briefly spiked to 26% on November 6 but is back near 19%, about where it was on October 11. In the last 24 hours it lost 4 points.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.