How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
Odds right now: 8 63%, 7 36%, Greater than 8 7%.
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
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Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026: the story so far
Updated November 11, 2026 at 8:49 PM UTC from live market data.
As of November 11, 2026, Polymarket traders see 8 as the most likely outcome at 63%, ahead of 7 (36%) and Greater than 8 (7%). 6 outcomes are trading in all. 8 has risen 12 points since October 12, from 51% to 63%, after peaking at 67% on November 4. 7 has risen 29 points since October 12, from 8% to 36%, after peaking at 45% on November 11. In the last 24 hours 8 gained 10 points.
$217K has been traded on this event, $9.3K of it in the last 24 hours, and $23K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “7”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have 63% of their money on No.
Trading is scheduled to end on July 1, 2027. How it resolves: This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026. Rules risk: The rules were clarified after launch.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “7”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 9 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: The rules were clarified after launch.
Resolution source: tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026. All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall. One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No". If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
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Questions
What are the odds of How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
On Polymarket, 8 is trading at 63%. Other outcomes: 8 63%, 7 36%, Greater than 8 7%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
As of November 11, 2026, Polymarket traders see 8 as the most likely outcome at 63%, ahead of 7 (36%) and Greater than 8 (7%). 6 outcomes are trading in all. 8 has risen 12 points since October 12, from 51% to 63%, after peaking at 67% on November 4. 7 has risen 29 points since October 12, from 8% to 36%, after peaking at 45% on November 11. In the last 24 hours 8 gained 10 points.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on July 1, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.