Russia x Ukraine energy ceasefire agreement by...?
Odds right now: November 15 9%, November 30 23%, December 31 39%.
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
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Russia x Ukraine energy ceasefire agreement by: the story so far
Updated November 11, 2026 at 7:49 AM UTC from live market data.
As of November 11, 2026, Polymarket prices 3 separate markets for “Russia x Ukraine energy ceasefire agreement by...”: “November 15” at 9%, “November 30” at 23% and “December 31” at 39%. November 15 has fallen 41 points since November 11, from 50% to 9%. November 30 has fallen 28 points since November 11, from 51% to 23%.
$21K has been traded on this event, $23K of it in the last 24 hours, and $59K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “November 15”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have 72% of their money on No.
Trading is scheduled to end on December 31, 2026. How it resolves: This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an energy ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Kyiv time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “November 15”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 8 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an energy ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Kyiv time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An energy ceasefire refers to a mutually agreed arrangement under which both Russia and Ukraine commit to suspend strikes on at least one specific, defined category of the other country's energy infrastructure (e.g. oil refineries, gas processing plants, power plants, electricity transmission and distribution facilities, oil and gas pipelines, fuel storage facilities, or oil and gas export terminals), regardless of whether the two countries' commitments cover the same category. A category need not cover all such infrastructure in the other country to qualify; a category limited to a defined geographic area will be sufficient. The agreement must be either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A claim by a third party, including the President of the United States, that Russia and Ukraine have agreed to such an arrangement will not qualify without such confirmation. A broader ceasefire, peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed general suspension of strikes by both countries, whether or not it names energy infrastructure or any specific category of it. It will also qualify if it otherwise includes a mutually agreed suspension of strikes that meets the requirements above. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit commitment to suspend strikes will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in strikes will not be considered an energy ceasefire agreement. Arrangements which only apply to a single facility (e.g. the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant), will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the energy ceasefire officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
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Questions
What are the odds of Russia x Ukraine energy ceasefire agreement by...?
On Polymarket, November 15 is trading at 9%. Other outcomes: November 15 9%, November 30 23%, December 31 39%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with Russia x Ukraine energy ceasefire agreement by...?
As of November 11, 2026, Polymarket prices 3 separate markets for “Russia x Ukraine energy ceasefire agreement by...”: “November 15” at 9%, “November 30” at 23% and “December 31” at 39%. November 15 has fallen 41 points since November 11, from 50% to 9%. November 30 has fallen 28 points since November 11, from 51% to 23%.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on December 31, 2026, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.