French Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place
Odds right now: Candidate A 50%, Candidate B 50%, Candidate C 50%.
Show 18 more outcomes
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
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French Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place: the story so far
Updated November 10, 2026 at 3:07 PM UTC from live market data.
As of November 10, 2026, Polymarket traders see Candidate A as the most likely outcome at 50%, ahead of Candidate B (50%) and Candidate C (50%). 43 outcomes are trading in all.
$49K has been traded on this event, $6.0K of it in the last 24 hours, and $155K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “Raphaël Glucksmann”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have 89% of their money on No.
Trading is scheduled to end on April 18, 2027. How it resolves: A presidential election is scheduled to take place in France on April 18, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election. Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “Raphaël Glucksmann”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 11 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Full rules from Polymarket
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in France on April 18, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
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Questions
What are the odds of French Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place?
On Polymarket, Candidate A is trading at 50%. Other outcomes: Candidate A 50%, Candidate B 50%, Candidate C 50%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with French Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place?
As of November 10, 2026, Polymarket traders see Candidate A as the most likely outcome at 50%, ahead of Candidate B (50%) and Candidate C (50%). 43 outcomes are trading in all.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on April 18, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.