Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by...?
Odds right now: December 31, 2026 8%, December 31, 2027 34%, June 30, 2027 25%.
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by: the story so far
Updated November 9, 2026 at 1:11 PM UTC from live market data.
As of November 9, 2026, Polymarket prices 3 separate markets for “Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by...”: “December 31, 2026” at 8%, “December 31, 2027” at 34% and “June 30, 2027” at 25%. December 31, 2026 has briefly spiked to 12% on October 23 but is back near 8%, about where it was on October 10. December 31, 2027 has fallen 16 points since November 3, from 50% to 34%.
$3.0M has been traded on this event, $2.8K of it in the last 24 hours, and $84K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “December 31, 2026”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have nearly all of their money on Yes.
Trading is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027. How it resolves: This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalizatio. Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “December 31, 2026”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 4 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not. Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify. The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ask Cleus about this market
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Questions
What are the odds of Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by...?
On Polymarket, December 31, 2026 is trading at 8%. Other outcomes: December 31, 2026 8%, December 31, 2027 34%, June 30, 2027 25%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by...?
As of November 9, 2026, Polymarket prices 3 separate markets for “Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by...”: “December 31, 2026” at 8%, “December 31, 2027” at 34% and “June 30, 2027” at 25%. December 31, 2026 has briefly spiked to 12% on October 23 but is back near 8%, about where it was on October 10. December 31, 2027 has fallen 16 points since November 3, from 50% to 34%.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.