Yilan County Magistrate Election Winner
Odds right now: Lin Kuo-chang 66%, Candidate A 50%, Candidate B 50%.
Show 18 more outcomes
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
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Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
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Yilan County Magistrate Election Winner: the story so far
Updated November 12, 2026 at 12:30 AM UTC from live market data.
As of November 12, 2026, Polymarket traders see Lin Kuo-chang as the most likely outcome at 66%, ahead of Candidate A (50%) and Candidate B (50%). 31 outcomes are trading in all. Lin Kuo-chang has held close to 68% since October 13. In the last 24 hours Lin Kuo-chang gained 4 points.
$20K has been traded on this event, $5.1K of it in the last 24 hours, and $18K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “Lin Kuo-chang”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have 94% of their money on No.
Trading is scheduled to end on November 29, 2026. How it resolves: Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Yilan County as a result of this election. Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “Lin Kuo-chang”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 6 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Full rules from Polymarket
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Yilan County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
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Questions
What are the odds of Yilan County Magistrate Election Winner?
On Polymarket, Lin Kuo-chang is trading at 66%. Other outcomes: Lin Kuo-chang 66%, Candidate A 50%, Candidate B 50%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with Yilan County Magistrate Election Winner?
As of November 12, 2026, Polymarket traders see Lin Kuo-chang as the most likely outcome at 66%, ahead of Candidate A (50%) and Candidate B (50%). 31 outcomes are trading in all. Lin Kuo-chang has held close to 68% since October 13. In the last 24 hours Lin Kuo-chang gained 4 points.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on November 29, 2026, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.