Will Xi meet with Takaichi by...?
Odds right now: December 31 93%.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by: the story so far
Updated November 11, 2026 at 10:47 AM UTC from live market data.
As of November 11, 2026, Polymarket traders give “Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026” a 93% chance. The price has risen 18 points since October 12, from 76% to 93%. In the last 24 hours it gained 3 points.
$169K has been traded on this event, $3.1K of it in the last 24 hours, and $32K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “December 31”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have nearly all of their money on Yes.
Trading is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027. How it resolves: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sanae Takaichi meets with Xi Jinping between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “December 31”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 4 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue; the end date has passed and it is still open; a result has been proposed and is in the challenge window.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sanae Takaichi meets with Xi Jinping between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both Takaichi and Jinping are present and interact with each other in person. An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ask Cleus about this market
Cleus has this market’s prices, rules, its own odds and the unusual bets in front of it, and searches the web and X for the rest.
Analysis, not financial advice. Prediction markets can lose you money. Free: 3 questions a day.
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Questions
What are the odds of Will Xi meet with Takaichi by...?
On Polymarket, December 31 is trading at 93%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with Will Xi meet with Takaichi by...?
As of November 11, 2026, Polymarket traders give “Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026” a 93% chance. The price has risen 18 points since October 12, from 76% to 93%. In the last 24 hours it gained 3 points.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.