Will Trump and Xi hug at APEC?
Odds right now: Yes 3%.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
Will Trump and Xi hug at APEC: the story so far
Updated November 13, 2026 at 6:48 AM UTC from live market data.
As of November 13, 2026, Polymarket traders give “Will Trump and Xi hug at APEC” a 3% chance. The price has fallen 47 points since November 11, from 50% to 3%. In the last 24 hours it lost 3 points.
$9.1K has been traded on this event, $6.5K of it in the last 24 hours, and $24K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “Will Trump and Xi hug at APEC”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have nearly all of their money on No.
Trading is scheduled to end on December 1, 2026. How it resolves: Donald Trump is scheduled to visit China to attend the APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting in Shenzhen on November 18-19, 2026, where he is expected to meet Xi Jinping. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump and Xi Jinping hug at any point during this visit.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “Will Trump and Xi hug at APEC?”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 6 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Full rules from Polymarket
Donald Trump is scheduled to visit China to attend the APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting in Shenzhen on November 18-19, 2026, where he is expected to meet Xi Jinping. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump and Xi Jinping hug at any point during this visit. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Video or photographic evidence of the hug must be released during the calendar days (China Standard Time) of the visit to qualify. A qualifying hug is defined as an in-person greeting or gesture involving the two individuals wrapping at least one arm around the other individual's shoulders or back while facing each other in a manner consistent with a hug. Gestures where only one individual places an arm around the other, or where both individuals place arms around each other while standing side by side and not facing each other, will not qualify as a hug. Brief incidental contact, such as a pat on the back or shoulder without arm-wrapping from both parties, will similarly not qualify. For the purposes of this market, the visit begins when Donald Trump enters the terrestrial or maritime territory of China and ends once Donald Trump physically departs from Chinese territory. This market may resolve at the end of the calendar day (China Standard Time) that Donald Trump physically departs from Chinese territory at the end of the visit. If Donald Trump does not physically enter the terrestrial or maritime territory of China by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source will be based on photographic/video footage.
Ask Cleus about this market
Cleus has this market’s prices, rules, its own odds and the unusual bets in front of it, and searches the web and X for the rest.
Analysis, not financial advice. Prediction markets can lose you money. Free: 3 questions a day.
More geopolitics markets
Questions
What are the odds of Will Trump and Xi hug at APEC?
On Polymarket, Will Trump and Xi hug at APEC? is trading at 3%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with Will Trump and Xi hug at APEC?
As of November 13, 2026, Polymarket traders give “Will Trump and Xi hug at APEC” a 3% chance. The price has fallen 47 points since November 11, from 50% to 3%. In the last 24 hours it lost 3 points.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on December 1, 2026, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.