Will Iran target Oman by...?
Odds right now: November 30 16%, December 31 21%.
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
Will Iran target Oman by: the story so far
Updated November 9, 2026 at 9:53 PM UTC from live market data.
As of November 9, 2026, Polymarket prices 2 separate markets for “Will Iran target Oman by...”: “November 30” at 16% and “December 31” at 21%. November 30 has briefly spiked to 47% on November 1 but is back near 16%, about where it was on October 10. December 31 has fallen 30 points since October 30, from 51% to 21%, after peaking at 54% on October 31. In the last 24 hours November 30 gained 11 points.
$62K has been traded on this event, $6.8K of it in the last 24 hours, and $2.6K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “November 30”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have 96% of their money on No.
Trading is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027. How it resolves: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets Oman through a qualifying military action between market creation and the listed date, Gulf Standard Time (GST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at Oman. Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “November 30”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 3 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue; the end date has passed and it is still open; a result has been proposed and is in the challenge window.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets Oman through a qualifying military action between market creation and the listed date, Gulf Standard Time (GST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at Oman. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered. A military action will be considered directed at Oman if it is directed at the terrestrial territory of Oman, including any internal waters. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (GST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and Oman and a consensus of credible reporting.
Ask Cleus about this market
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Questions
What are the odds of Will Iran target Oman by...?
On Polymarket, November 30 is trading at 16%. Other outcomes: November 30 16%, December 31 21%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with Will Iran target Oman by...?
As of November 9, 2026, Polymarket prices 2 separate markets for “Will Iran target Oman by...”: “November 30” at 16% and “December 31” at 21%. November 30 has briefly spiked to 47% on November 1 but is back near 16%, about where it was on October 10. December 31 has fallen 30 points since October 30, from 51% to 21%, after peaking at 54% on October 31. In the last 24 hours November 30 gained 11 points.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.