Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
Odds right now: Yes 9%.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
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Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027: the story so far
Updated November 10, 2026 at 8:18 AM UTC from live market data.
As of November 10, 2026, Polymarket traders give “Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027” a 9% chance. The price has held close to 9% since October 11.
$3.7M has been traded on this event, $3.1K of it in the last 24 hours, and $211K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have nearly all of their money on No. 1 large bet in the last 30 days stood out as unusual for size, odds or wallet history.
Trading is scheduled to end on January 1, 2028. How it resolves: This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 5 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
- 79Geopolitics · 21 days ago
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
$4.0K on No at 91¢ · pays $4.4K
- Wallet opened the same day
- Only 3 markets ever traded
- A quarter or more of the wallet's money in this bet
0x213d…11benew that day · 3 mkts · +$3.1K P&L
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Ask Cleus about this market
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Questions
What are the odds of Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
On Polymarket, Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? is trading at 9%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
As of November 10, 2026, Polymarket traders give “Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027” a 9% chance. The price has held close to 9% since October 11.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on January 1, 2028, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.