Which parties will be in the next Israeli government?
Odds right now: Ra'am 22%, Shas 26%, Likud 23%.
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Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
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Which parties will be in the next Israeli government: the story so far
Updated November 9, 2026 at 6:21 AM UTC from live market data.
As of November 9, 2026, Polymarket prices 15 separate markets for “Which parties will be in the next Israeli government”: “Ra'am” at 22%, “Shas” at 26%, “Likud” at 23% and “Otzma Yehudit” at 14%. Ra'am has fallen 30 points since October 10, from 54% to 24%. Shas has fallen 12 points since October 10, from 38% to 26%, after peaking at 56% on October 28. In the last 24 hours Ra'am lost 6 points.
$375K has been traded on this event, $11K of it in the last 24 hours, and $162K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “Ra'am”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have 58% of their money on Yes.
Trading is scheduled to end on June 30, 2027. How it resolves: Parliamentary elections to elect the 26th Knesset are scheduled to take place on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed political party or electoral list is included in the first Israeli government formed after the 2026 Knesset election. Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “Ra'am”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 10 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Resolution source: main.knesset.gov.il
Full rules from Polymarket
Parliamentary elections to elect the 26th Knesset are scheduled to take place on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed political party or electoral list is included in the first Israeli government formed after the 2026 Knesset election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market may resolve once the composition of the first Israeli government following the 2026 Knesset election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. The government is considered formed when the newly elected Knesset approves the government in a vote of confidence. A party is considered part of the government if it provides at least one Minister, including the Prime Minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Minister post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Israel and the Knesset.
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Questions
What are the odds of Which parties will be in the next Israeli government?
On Polymarket, Ra'am is trading at 22%. Other outcomes: Ra'am 22%, Shas 26%, Likud 23%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with Which parties will be in the next Israeli government?
As of November 9, 2026, Polymarket prices 15 separate markets for “Which parties will be in the next Israeli government”: “Ra'am” at 22%, “Shas” at 26%, “Likud” at 23% and “Otzma Yehudit” at 14%. Ra'am has fallen 30 points since October 10, from 54% to 24%. Shas has fallen 12 points since October 10, from 38% to 26%, after peaking at 56% on October 28. In the last 24 hours Ra'am lost 6 points.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on June 30, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.