When will Trump leave China?
Odds right now: November 19 94%, November 20 6%, November 21 1%.
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
When will Trump leave China: the story so far
Updated November 12, 2026 at 6:49 AM UTC from live market data.
As of November 12, 2026, Polymarket traders see November 19 as the most likely outcome at 94%, ahead of November 20 (6%) and November 21 (1%). 8 outcomes are trading in all. November 19 has risen 43 points since November 11, from 51% to 94%. November 20 has fallen 44 points since November 11, from 50% to 6%. In the last 24 hours November 19 gained 50 points.
$11K has been traded on this event, $11K of it in the last 24 hours, and $46K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “November 19”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have 62% of their money on Yes.
Trading is scheduled to end on November 23, 2026. How it resolves: This market will resolve according to the calendar day, in China Standard Time, on which Donald Trump physically leaves China during his first visit to China that begins between market creation and November 22, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time. A "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of China. Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “November 19”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 9 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the calendar day, in China Standard Time, on which Donald Trump physically leaves China during his first visit to China that begins between market creation and November 22, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time. A "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of China. Trump will be considered to leave China once he physically leaves the terrestrial and maritime territory of China. Trump’s presence in Chinese airspace will not be considered as being physically present in China. If Donald Trump begins a visit to China before November 22, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, but does not leave China by that time, this market will resolve to “After November 22”. If Donald Trump does not visit China by November 22, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No visit by November 22”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts, and a consensus of credible reporting.
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Questions
What are the odds of When will Trump leave China?
On Polymarket, November 19 is trading at 94%. Other outcomes: November 19 94%, November 20 6%, November 21 1%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with When will Trump leave China?
As of November 12, 2026, Polymarket traders see November 19 as the most likely outcome at 94%, ahead of November 20 (6%) and November 21 (1%). 8 outcomes are trading in all. November 19 has risen 43 points since November 11, from 51% to 94%. November 20 has fallen 44 points since November 11, from 50% to 6%. In the last 24 hours November 19 gained 50 points.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on November 23, 2026, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.