US rank in World Happiness Report 2027
Odds right now: 19th or higher 43%, 26th-27th 14%, 24th-25th 12%.
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
US rank in World Happiness Report 2027: the story so far
Updated November 15, 2026 at 4:46 AM UTC from live market data.
As of November 15, 2026, Polymarket traders see 19th or higher as the most likely outcome at 43%, ahead of 26th-27th (14%) and 24th-25th (12%). 6 outcomes are trading in all. 19th or higher has fallen 8 points since November 14, from 51% to 43%. 26th-27th has fallen 37 points since November 14, from 51% to 14%. In the last 24 hours 19th or higher gained 5 points.
$6.8K has been traded on this event, $6.8K of it in the last 24 hours, and $17K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “19th or higher”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have 52% of their money on No.
Trading is scheduled to end on April 1, 2027. How it resolves: This market will resolve according to the place in which the United States finishes in the World Happiness Report 2027 ranking of countries by life evaluations (in the World Happiness Report 2026, this ranking was published as "Figure 2.1: Country rankings by life evaluations. Gallup World Poll (2023–2025)"). Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “19th or higher”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 9 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Resolution source: worldhappiness.report/
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the place in which the United States finishes in the World Happiness Report 2027 ranking of countries by life evaluations (in the World Happiness Report 2026, this ranking was published as "Figure 2.1: Country rankings by life evaluations. Gallup World Poll (2023–2025)"). The World Happiness Report 2027 is expected to be published in March 2027. Countries will be ranked according to their published rank in the World Happiness Report 2027. If two or more countries share the same published rank, they will be ranked by their life evaluation score (the average Cantril ladder score) as published in the report, with higher scores ranking higher. If they remain tied, they will be ranked in alphabetical order of their English names. This market will resolve to the bracket that contains the place occupied by the United States after applying this ranking. If no World Happiness Report 2027 ranking is published by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or the United States is not ranked, this market will resolve to "28th or lower". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the World Happiness Report (https://worldhappiness.report/); a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Questions
What are the odds of US rank in World Happiness Report 2027?
On Polymarket, 19th or higher is trading at 43%. Other outcomes: 19th or higher 43%, 26th-27th 14%, 24th-25th 12%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with US rank in World Happiness Report 2027?
As of November 15, 2026, Polymarket traders see 19th or higher as the most likely outcome at 43%, ahead of 26th-27th (14%) and 24th-25th (12%). 6 outcomes are trading in all. 19th or higher has fallen 8 points since November 14, from 51% to 43%. 26th-27th has fallen 37 points since November 14, from 51% to 14%. In the last 24 hours 19th or higher gained 5 points.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on April 1, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.