Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by...?
Odds right now: December 31, 2026 4%, June 30, 2027 24%, December 31, 2027 35%.
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
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Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by: the story so far
Updated November 10, 2026 at 5:18 AM UTC from live market data.
As of November 10, 2026, Polymarket prices 3 separate markets for “Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by...”: “December 31, 2026” at 4%, “June 30, 2027” at 24% and “December 31, 2027” at 35%. December 31, 2026 has fallen 3 points since October 11, from 7% to 4%, after peaking at 15% on October 30. June 30, 2027 has fallen 27 points since November 3, from 51% to 24%.
$566K has been traded on this event, $27K of it in the last 24 hours, and $14K sits in the order books.
Trading is scheduled to end on January 1, 2028. How it resolves: This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially scheduled in Ukraine by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “June 30, 2027”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 0 of them have made $25K+.
None of the top holders has a big profit record yet.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue; the end date has passed and it is still open; a result has been proposed and is in the challenge window.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially scheduled in Ukraine by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war. A qualifying referendum will be considered to be scheduled once a date for the referendum to take place has been officially scheduled and publicly announced by a relevant Ukrainian government authority with the legal jurisdiction to do so. Once a qualifying referendum has been scheduled, this market will resolve to “Yes.” Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Questions
What are the odds of Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by...?
On Polymarket, December 31, 2026 is trading at 4%. Other outcomes: December 31, 2026 4%, June 30, 2027 24%, December 31, 2027 35%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by...?
As of November 10, 2026, Polymarket prices 3 separate markets for “Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by...”: “December 31, 2026” at 4%, “June 30, 2027” at 24% and “December 31, 2027” at 35%. December 31, 2026 has fallen 3 points since October 11, from 7% to 4%, after peaking at 15% on October 30. June 30, 2027 has fallen 27 points since November 3, from 51% to 24%.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on January 1, 2028, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.