Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by...?
Odds right now: December 31, 2026 6%, December 31, 2027 28%, June 30, 2027 16%.
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by: the story so far
Updated November 10, 2026 at 5:18 AM UTC from live market data.
As of November 10, 2026, Polymarket prices 3 separate markets for “Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by...”: “December 31, 2026” at 6%, “December 31, 2027” at 28% and “June 30, 2027” at 16%. December 31, 2026 has held close to 6% since October 11. December 31, 2027 has fallen 22 points since October 26, from 51% to 28%, after peaking at 54% on October 27.
$213K has been traded on this event, $30K of it in the last 24 hours, and $49K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “December 31, 2027”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have 74% of their money on No.
Trading is scheduled to end on January 1, 2028. How it resolves: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “December 31, 2027”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 7 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify). An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
Ask Cleus about this market
Cleus has this market’s prices, rules, its own odds and the unusual bets in front of it, and searches the web and X for the rest.
Analysis, not financial advice. Prediction markets can lose you money. Free: 3 questions a day.
More geopolitics markets
Questions
What are the odds of Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by...?
On Polymarket, December 31, 2026 is trading at 6%. Other outcomes: December 31, 2026 6%, December 31, 2027 28%, June 30, 2027 16%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by...?
As of November 10, 2026, Polymarket prices 3 separate markets for “Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by...”: “December 31, 2026” at 6%, “December 31, 2027” at 28% and “June 30, 2027” at 16%. December 31, 2026 has held close to 6% since October 11. December 31, 2027 has fallen 22 points since October 26, from 51% to 28%, after peaking at 54% on October 27.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on January 1, 2028, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.