Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan by end of APEC trip?
Odds right now: Yes 1%.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
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Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan by end of APEC trip: the story so far
Updated November 13, 2026 at 6:50 AM UTC from live market data.
As of November 13, 2026, Polymarket traders give “Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan by end of APEC trip” a 1% chance. The price has fallen 48 points since November 11, from 50% to 1%.
$14K has been traded on this event, $13K of it in the last 24 hours, and $28K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan by end of APEC trip”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have nearly all of their money on No.
Trading is scheduled to end on December 1, 2026. How it resolves: Donald Trump is scheduled to visit China to attend the APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting in Shenzhen on November 18-19, 2026, where he is expected to meet Xi Jinping. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump publicly endorses the People's Republic of China's claim of sovereignty over Taiwan by the end of this visit. Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan by end of APEC trip?”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 7 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Full rules from Polymarket
Donald Trump is scheduled to visit China to attend the APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting in Shenzhen on November 18-19, 2026, where he is expected to meet Xi Jinping. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump publicly endorses the People's Republic of China's claim of sovereignty over Taiwan by the end of this visit. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To qualify, Trump must make an explicit public statement affirming that Taiwan is part of China, that China has sovereignty over Taiwan, or that the United States supports China's claim to Taiwan. Restating the long-standing United States "One China policy", acknowledging that China holds such a position, noting that the United States does not support Taiwanese independence, or declining to say whether the United States would defend Taiwan will not qualify, as none of these constitutes an endorsement of China's claim. Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies. A statement issued jointly by the United States and China will qualify if Trump personally endorses it. The visit will be considered to have ended at the end of the calendar day (China Standard Time) on which Donald Trump physically departs from Chinese territory. No meetings, events, or statements which occur after this time will be considered. If Donald Trump does not physically enter the terrestrial or maritime territory of China by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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Questions
What are the odds of Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan by end of APEC trip?
On Polymarket, Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan by end of APEC trip? is trading at 1%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan by end of APEC trip?
As of November 13, 2026, Polymarket traders give “Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan by end of APEC trip” a 1% chance. The price has fallen 48 points since November 11, from 50% to 1%.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on December 1, 2026, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.