Speaker of the House after the midterms?
Odds right now: Hakeem Jeffries 94%, Katherine Clark 3%, Pete Aguilar 3%.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “Hakeem Jeffries”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 14 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue; the end date has passed and it is still open.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the first individual elected to be Speaker of the House by the United States House of Representatives of the 120th United States Congress following the 2026 United States midterm elections. The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ask Cleus about this market
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Questions
What are the odds of Speaker of the House after the midterms?
On Polymarket, Hakeem Jeffries is trading at 94%. Other outcomes: Hakeem Jeffries 94%, Katherine Clark 3%, Pete Aguilar 3%. Prices update live.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on November 4, 2026, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.