Spain General Election: Vox % of vote?
Odds right now: 18-20% 38%, 16-18% 32%, 20-22% 22%.
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
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Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
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Spain General Election: Vox % of vote: the story so far
Updated November 12, 2026 at 6:49 AM UTC from live market data.
As of November 12, 2026, Polymarket traders see 18-20% as the most likely outcome at 38%, ahead of 16-18% (32%) and 20-22% (22%). 5 outcomes are trading in all. 18-20% has fallen 12 points since October 21, from 50% to 38%, after peaking at 53% on November 5. 16-18% has fallen 16 points since October 21, from 48% to 32%, after peaking at 54% on October 29. In the last 24 hours 18-20% lost 7 points.
$26K has been traded on this event, $6.4K of it in the last 24 hours, and $60K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “20-22%”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have 74% of their money on No.
Trading is scheduled to end on November 30, 2026. How it resolves: Legislative elections to elect the 350 members of the Congress of Deputies of Spain are scheduled to take place on November 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of the valid votes cast in the election to the Congress of Deputies of Spain received by Vox. Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “20-22%”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 11 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Full rules from Polymarket
Legislative elections to elect the 350 members of the Congress of Deputies of Spain are scheduled to take place on November 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of the valid votes cast in the election to the Congress of Deputies of Spain received by Vox. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The vote share will be calculated as the total number of valid votes received by the lists attributed to Vox divided by the total number of valid votes cast, as reported in the official results. Seats and votes will be attributed according to the electoral list on which they were obtained, as reported in the official results, regardless of the party membership of individual candidates. Lists will be attributed as follows: PSOE: lists of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party, including the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC) lists in Catalonia. PP: lists of the People's Party, including the joint UPN–PP list in Navarre. Broad Front (FA): all Broad Front lists, including Catalunya en Comú in Catalonia, Compromís–Valencian Front in the Valencian Community, and Canarian People’s Unity (UPC) in the Canary Islands. ERC: Republican Left of Catalonia lists, including the joint ERC–Podem lists in Catalonia. Podemos: only lists presented by Podemos on its own. CCa: Canarian Coalition lists, including the joint CCa–1º CAN lists in the Canary Islands. Any other list will be attributed to the party or coalition that presents it, as named in the official proclamation of candidacies. Electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent changes in party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership will not be considered. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Spanish Ministry of the Interior (https://infoelectoral.interior.gob.es/).
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Questions
What are the odds of Spain General Election: Vox % of vote?
On Polymarket, 18-20% is trading at 38%. Other outcomes: 18-20% 38%, 16-18% 32%, 20-22% 22%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with Spain General Election: Vox % of vote?
As of November 12, 2026, Polymarket traders see 18-20% as the most likely outcome at 38%, ahead of 16-18% (32%) and 20-22% (22%). 5 outcomes are trading in all. 18-20% has fallen 12 points since October 21, from 50% to 38%, after peaking at 53% on November 5. 16-18% has fallen 16 points since October 21, from 48% to 32%, after peaking at 54% on October 29. In the last 24 hours 18-20% lost 7 points.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on November 30, 2026, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.