Spain General Election: Turnout
Odds right now: 70%+ 37%, 66-68% 22%, 68-70% 21%.
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
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Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
Spain General Election: Turnout: the story so far
Updated November 13, 2026 at 6:47 AM UTC from live market data.
As of November 13, 2026, Polymarket traders see 70%+ as the most likely outcome at 37%, ahead of 66-68% (22%) and 68-70% (21%). 6 outcomes are trading in all. 70%+ has risen 9 points since October 14, from 26% to 36%, after peaking at 51% on October 29. 66-68% has fallen 2 points since October 14, from 25% to 22%, after peaking at 34% on October 15. In the last 24 hours 70%+ gained 11 points.
$20K has been traded on this event, $3.4K of it in the last 24 hours, and $55K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “70%+”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have 73% of their money on No.
Trading is scheduled to end on November 30, 2026. How it resolves: A general election is scheduled to be held in Spain on November 29, 2026. Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “70%+”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 8 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Full rules from Polymarket
A general election is scheduled to be held in Spain on November 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the 2026 Spanish general election to the Congress of Deputies, defined as the total number of votes cast (votantes) divided by the total number of registered voters (electores). (see 2023 example: https://www.boe.es/boe/dias/2023/09/01/pdfs/BOE-A-2023-18907.pdf) If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results reported by the Spanish government, including the Spanish Ministry of the Interior (https://infoelectoral.interior.gob.es/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used if official results are not available.
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Questions
What are the odds of Spain General Election: Turnout?
On Polymarket, 70%+ is trading at 37%. Other outcomes: 70%+ 37%, 66-68% 22%, 68-70% 21%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with Spain General Election: Turnout?
As of November 13, 2026, Polymarket traders see 70%+ as the most likely outcome at 37%, ahead of 66-68% (22%) and 68-70% (21%). 6 outcomes are trading in all. 70%+ has risen 9 points since October 14, from 26% to 36%, after peaking at 51% on October 29. 66-68% has fallen 2 points since October 14, from 25% to 22%, after peaking at 34% on October 15. In the last 24 hours 70%+ gained 11 points.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on November 30, 2026, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.