Spain General Election: PP + Vox get 50%+ of Vote?
Odds right now: Yes 44%.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
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Spain General Election: PP + Vox get 50%+ of Vote: the story so far
Updated November 9, 2026 at 11:17 AM UTC from live market data.
As of November 9, 2026, Polymarket traders give “Spain General Election: PP + Vox get 50%+ of Vote” a 44% chance. The price has fallen 7 points since October 14, from 51% to 44%, after peaking at 65% on November 7. In the last 24 hours it lost 6 points.
$27K has been traded on this event, $2.9K of it in the last 24 hours, and $36K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “Spain General Election: PP + Vox get 50%+ of Vote”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have 56% of their money on No.
Trading is scheduled to end on November 30, 2026. How it resolves: Legislative elections to elect the 350 members of the Congress of Deputies of Spain are scheduled to take place on November 29, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the People’s Party (PP) and Vox receive a combined total of 50% or more of the valid votes cast in the election to the Congress of Deputies of Spain. Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “Spain General Election: PP + Vox get 50%+ of Vote?”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 7 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Full rules from Polymarket
Legislative elections to elect the 350 members of the Congress of Deputies of Spain are scheduled to take place on November 29, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the People’s Party (PP) and Vox receive a combined total of 50% or more of the valid votes cast in the election to the Congress of Deputies of Spain. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Votes will be counted only where the official results attribute them to PP or Vox, including under any regional designation of either party. Votes attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, or coalition agreements. The combined vote share will be calculated as the total number of valid votes received by PP and Vox divided by the total number of valid votes cast, as reported in the official results. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Spanish Ministry of the Interior (https://infoelectoral.interior.gob.es/).
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Questions
What are the odds of Spain General Election: PP + Vox get 50%+ of Vote?
On Polymarket, Spain General Election: PP + Vox get 50%+ of Vote? is trading at 44%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with Spain General Election: PP + Vox get 50%+ of Vote?
As of November 9, 2026, Polymarket traders give “Spain General Election: PP + Vox get 50%+ of Vote” a 44% chance. The price has fallen 7 points since October 14, from 51% to 44%, after peaking at 65% on November 7. In the last 24 hours it lost 6 points.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on November 30, 2026, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.