Next Israeli government # of seats?
Odds right now: <58 62%, 61-63 19%, 64-66 7%.
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “58-60”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 8 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the Knesset held by the parties included in the first Israeli government formed after the 2026 Knesset election. The government is considered formed at the moment the newly elected Knesset approves the government in a vote of confidence. Only the seats attributed to the government's parties at that moment will be considered; seats gained or lost afterward will not affect the resolution of this market. Seats will be attributed to parties according to the Knesset factions in place at the time of that vote. A party is considered part of the government if it provides at least one Minister, including the Prime Minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, abstentions, or similar) without holding a Minister post will not count toward the government's seat total. This market may resolve once the composition of the first Israeli government following the 2026 Knesset election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Israel and the Knesset.
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Questions
What are the odds of Next Israeli government # of seats?
On Polymarket, <58 is trading at 62%. Other outcomes: <58 62%, 61-63 19%, 64-66 7%. Prices update live.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on January 1, 2028, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.