Which coalition will form the next Israeli government?
Odds right now: No government formed 54%, Other 33%, Y + T + B + D 7%.
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Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
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Which coalition will form the next Israeli government: the story so far
Updated November 12, 2026 at 11:22 PM UTC from live market data.
As of November 12, 2026, Polymarket traders see No government formed as the most likely outcome at 54%, ahead of Other (33%) and Y + T + B + D (7%). 22 outcomes are trading in all. No government formed has risen 12 points since October 30, from 43% to 54%. Other has fallen 17 points since October 30, from 50% to 33%, after peaking at 65% on November 6. In the last 24 hours No government formed gained 18 points.
$62K has been traded on this event, $7.6K of it in the last 24 hours, and $132K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “No government formed”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have 97% of their money on Yes.
Trading is scheduled to end on January 1, 2028. How it resolves: This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the 2026 Knesset election. The government is considered formed at the moment the newly elected Knesset approves the government in a vote of confidence. Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “No government formed”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 8 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the 2026 Knesset election. The government is considered formed at the moment the newly elected Knesset approves the government in a vote of confidence. A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it provides at least one Minister, including the Prime Minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, abstentions, or similar) without holding a Minister post will not qualify. A coalition does not need to hold a majority of seats in the Knesset; a government approved in a vote of confidence will qualify regardless of the number of seats held by its parties. Parties will be identified by the electoral lists on which they contested the 2026 Knesset election; any subsequent split, merger, or renaming of a list will be disregarded. In the listed options, “L” refers to Likud, “Y” to Yashar, “T” to Together, “S” to Shas, “U” to United Torah Judaism (UTJ), “O” to Otzma Yehudit (Otzma), “Z” to RZP-Zehut (RZP), “B” to Yisrael Beiteinu (YB), “D” to The Democrats (Democrats), “R” to Ra'am, and “J” to Joint List. This market will resolve to the listed option whose parties exactly match the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition includes any party not listed in an option, or does not include every party listed in an option, that option will resolve to “No”. If no listed option exactly matches the parties included in the coalition, this market will resolve to “Other”. Only a government formed by the 26th Knesset, elected on October 27, 2026, will be considered. If the 26th Knesset does not approve a government in a vote of confidence, including if it is dissolved and a new election is called before a government is formed, or if no such government is formed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No government formed”. Governments formed after any subsequent Knesset election will not be considered. This market may resolve once the 26th Knesset has approved the government in a vote of confidence and the composition of that government has been officially confirmed. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Israel and the Knesset.
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Questions
What are the odds of Which coalition will form the next Israeli government?
On Polymarket, No government formed is trading at 54%. Other outcomes: No government formed 54%, Other 33%, Y + T + B + D 7%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with Which coalition will form the next Israeli government?
As of November 12, 2026, Polymarket traders see No government formed as the most likely outcome at 54%, ahead of Other (33%) and Y + T + B + D (7%). 22 outcomes are trading in all. No government formed has risen 12 points since October 30, from 43% to 54%. Other has fallen 17 points since October 30, from 50% to 33%, after peaking at 65% on November 6. In the last 24 hours No government formed gained 18 points.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on January 1, 2028, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.