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New Taipei Mayor Election Winner

Odds right now: Su Chiao-hui 60%, Candidate A 50%, Candidate B 50%.

GeopoliticsEnds in 22 days$265K traded$11K in 24h$239K liquidityWatch the rulesUnusual bets
OutcomeMarketCleus24h
Su Chiao-hui
60%—▲ 3.5
Candidate A
50%——
Candidate B
50%——
Candidate C
50%——
Candidate D
50%——
Candidate E
50%——
Candidate F
50%——
Candidate G
50%——
Candidate H
50%——
Candidate I
50%——
Candidate J
50%——
Candidate K
50%——
Show 18 more outcomes
Candidate L
50%——
Candidate M
50%——
Candidate N
50%——
Candidate O
50%——
Candidate P
50%——
Candidate Q
50%——
Candidate R
50%——
Candidate S
50%——
Candidate T
50%——
Candidate U
50%——
Candidate V
50%——
Candidate W
50%——
Candidate X
50%——
Candidate Y
50%——
Candidate Z
50%——
Other
50%——
Lee Shu-chuan
41%—▼ 1.0
Huang Kuo-chang
<1%——
Last 30 days33%52%71%Oct 7Nov 6
Su Chiao-hui 60%
See it on Polymarket ↗
Cleus’s read

Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…

Usually 15–40 seconds.

Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.

Deep researchPremium

A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.

Smart money

Which side the winners are on

The top holders of “Lee Shu-chuan”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 10 of them have made $25K+.

Wallets with $25K+ all-time profit ($4.5K held)
Yes 55%45% No
All top holders ($61K held)
Yes 37%63% No

When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.

HolderHoldsAll-time P&L
0xa5ef…2966 No$28K—
0x9e05…e30e Yes$6.8K−$791
0xd0ad…b23e No$3.4K$1.5K
0x518a…90f5 Yes$2.2K$742
0xb313…1ce7 No$2.2K$2.4K
0x5b63…11a4 Yes$1.7K−$3.3M
0x06a9…9e43 Yes$1.5K$961
0x224e…8bca Yes$1.4K−$1.5K
0x8302…99cc Yes$1.2K$123
0x241a…2e4d Yes$986−$1.4K
Unusual bets

Big bets in this market that stand out

Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.

  • 64Geopolitics · 11 days ago

    New Taipei Mayor Election Winner: Lee Shu-chuan

    $2.0K on Yes at 49¢ · pays $4.1K

    • Wallet opened yesterday
    • Only 4 markets ever traded
    0x9e05…e30e1d old · 4 mkts · −$791 P&L
  • 51Geopolitics · 6 days ago

    New Taipei Mayor Election Winner: Lee Shu-chuan

    $1.3K on Yes at 61¢ · pays $2.1K

    • Wallet opened yesterday
    0x241a…2e4d1d old · 7 mkts · −$1.4K P&L
  • 50Geopolitics · 3 days ago

    New Taipei Mayor Election Winner: Su Chiao-hui

    $1000 on Yes at 49¢ · pays $2.0K

    • Wallet opened yesterday
    • Only its 2nd market ever
    0x2b64…0f3e2d old · 2 mkts · −$7.4K P&L
  • 50Geopolitics · 18 days ago

    New Taipei Mayor Election Winner: Lee Shu-chuan

    $980 on Yes at 46¢ · pays $2.2K

    • Wallet opened the same day
    • Only its 2nd market ever
    • Most of the wallet's money went into this one bet
    0x7f5d…c047new that day · 2 mkts · +$17 P&L
  • 50Geopolitics · 8 days ago

    New Taipei Mayor Election Winner: Lee Shu-chuan

    $692 on Yes at 52¢ · pays $1.3K

    • Wallet opened the same day
    0x06a9…9e43new that day · 10 mkts · +$961 P&L
  • 50Geopolitics · 18 days ago

    New Taipei Mayor Election Winner: Su Chiao-hui

    $601 on Yes at 65¢ · pays $926

    • Wallet opened the same day
    • Only its 2nd market ever
    • Most of the wallet's money went into this one bet
    0x2fc7…1735new that day · 2 mkts · −$58 P&L
  • 50Geopolitics · 8 days ago

    New Taipei Mayor Election Winner: Su Chiao-hui

    $500 on Yes at 50¢ · pays $991

    • Wallet opened the same day
    0xb345…9482new that day · 15 mkts · +$446 P&L
  • 47Geopolitics · 24 h ago

    New Taipei Mayor Election Winner: Su Chiao-hui

    $634 on No at 44¢ · pays $1.4K

    • Wallet is 3 days old
    0xe620…629b3d old · 13 mkts · +$5.1K P&L
Rules

How it actually resolves

The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.

Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.

Full rules from Polymarket

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of New Taipei as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).

Ask Cleus about this market

Cleus has this market’s prices, rules, its own odds and the unusual bets in front of it, and searches the web and X for the rest.

Analysis, not financial advice. Prediction markets can lose you money. Free: 3 questions a day.

More geopolitics markets

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Questions

What are the odds of New Taipei Mayor Election Winner?

On Polymarket, Su Chiao-hui is trading at 60%. Other outcomes: Su Chiao-hui 60%, Candidate A 50%, Candidate B 50%. Prices update live.

When does this market end?

It is scheduled to end on November 29, 2026, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.

What does Cleus predict?

Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.

Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.