Mayor Combo: Taipei and New Taipei
Odds right now: Other 50%, KMT Taipei, DPP New Taipei 35%, DPP sweep 27%.
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
Mayor Combo: Taipei and New Taipei: the story so far
Updated November 12, 2026 at 12:28 AM UTC from live market data.
As of November 12, 2026, Polymarket traders see Other as the most likely outcome at 50%, ahead of KMT Taipei, DPP New Taipei (35%) and DPP sweep (27%). 5 outcomes are trading in all. KMT Taipei, DPP New Taipei has fallen 16 points since November 3, from 51% to 35%. DPP sweep has fallen 24 points since November 3, from 51% to 27%.
$20K has been traded on this event, $7.2K of it in the last 24 hours, and $51K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “KMT sweep”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have nearly all of their money on Yes.
Trading is scheduled to end on November 29, 2026. How it resolves: This market will resolve according to the outcome of the Taipei and New Taipei mayoral elections that are currently scheduled for November 28, 2026. A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of that party. Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “KMT sweep”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 5 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the outcome of the Taipei and New Taipei mayoral elections that are currently scheduled for November 28, 2026. A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of that party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “KMT” or “DPP” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. If the results of one of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other". For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins all races. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Ask Cleus about this market
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Questions
What are the odds of Mayor Combo: Taipei and New Taipei?
On Polymarket, Other is trading at 50%. Other outcomes: Other 50%, KMT Taipei, DPP New Taipei 35%, DPP sweep 27%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with Mayor Combo: Taipei and New Taipei?
As of November 12, 2026, Polymarket traders see Other as the most likely outcome at 50%, ahead of KMT Taipei, DPP New Taipei (35%) and DPP sweep (27%). 5 outcomes are trading in all. KMT Taipei, DPP New Taipei has fallen 16 points since November 3, from 51% to 35%. DPP sweep has fallen 24 points since November 3, from 51% to 27%.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on November 29, 2026, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.