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Kaohsiung Mayor Election Winner

Odds right now: Lai Jui-lung 90%, Candidate A 50%, Candidate B 50%.

GeopoliticsEnds in 22 days$109K traded$11K in 24h$172K liquidityWatch the rules
OutcomeMarketCleus24h
Lai Jui-lung
90%—▲ 5.0
Candidate A
50%——
Candidate B
50%——
Candidate C
50%——
Candidate D
50%——
Candidate E
50%——
Candidate F
50%——
Candidate G
50%——
Candidate H
50%——
Candidate I
50%——
Candidate J
50%——
Candidate K
50%——
Show 18 more outcomes
Candidate L
50%——
Candidate M
50%——
Candidate N
50%——
Candidate O
50%——
Candidate P
50%——
Candidate Q
50%——
Candidate R
50%——
Candidate S
50%——
Candidate T
50%——
Candidate U
50%——
Candidate V
50%——
Candidate W
50%——
Candidate X
50%——
Candidate Y
50%——
Candidate Z
50%——
Other
50%——
Ko Chih-en
8%—▼ 6.9
Lin Tai-hua
<1%——
Last 30 days61%78%94%Oct 7Nov 6
Lai Jui-lung 90%
See it on Polymarket ↗
Cleus’s read

Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…

Usually 15–40 seconds.

Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.

Deep researchPremium

A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.

Smart money

Which side the winners are on

The top holders of “Lai Jui-lung”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 12 of them have made $25K+.

Wallets with $25K+ all-time profit ($5.8K held)
Yes 97%3% No
All top holders ($22K held)
Yes 89%11% No

When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.

HolderHoldsAll-time P&L
0x70c9…3f14 Yes$7.2K$418
0xa7b3…246a Yes$4.4K$27K
0xefac…c9a1 Yes$2.5K−$52K
0xa5ef…2966 No$1.3K—
0x49e6…290e Yes$1.2K$287
0x7131…b3a6 Yes$712−$8.6K
0xcb3a…d3e3 Yes$674$2.3K
0x9648…6825 No$654−$4.8M
0x39aa…583c Yes$496$81K
0x1693…5d20 Yes$488$1.8K
Unusual bets

Big bets in this market that stand out

Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.

  • 53Geopolitics · 13 h ago

    Kaohsiung Mayor Election Winner: Lai Jui-lung

    $1.8K on Yes at 87¢ · pays $2.0K

    • Wallet is 14 days old
    • Only its 2nd market ever
    0x70c9…3f1414d old · 2 mkts · +$418 P&L
  • 48Geopolitics · 7 days ago

    Kaohsiung Mayor Election Winner: Ko Chih-en

    $713 on No at 86¢ · pays $831

    • Wallet is 8 days old
    • Only its 2nd market ever
    0x70c9…3f148d old · 2 mkts · +$418 P&L
Rules

How it actually resolves

The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.

Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.

Full rules from Polymarket

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Kaohsiung as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).

Ask Cleus about this market

Cleus has this market’s prices, rules, its own odds and the unusual bets in front of it, and searches the web and X for the rest.

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Questions

What are the odds of Kaohsiung Mayor Election Winner?

On Polymarket, Lai Jui-lung is trading at 90%. Other outcomes: Lai Jui-lung 90%, Candidate A 50%, Candidate B 50%. Prices update live.

When does this market end?

It is scheduled to end on November 29, 2026, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.

What does Cleus predict?

Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.

Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.