Kansas Governor Election Winner
Odds right now: Cindy Holscher (D) >99%, Ty Masterson (R) <1%.
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “Cindy Holscher (D)”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 10 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
- 65Politics · 3 days ago
Kansas Governor Election Winner: Cindy Holscher (D)
$2.0K on Yes at 91¢ · pays $2.2K
- Wallet is 4 days old
- Only 2 markets ever traded
- Most of the wallet's money went into this one bet
0xe79c…c6614d old · 2 mkts · −$208 P&L - 59Politics · 4 days ago
Kansas Governor Election Winner: Cindy Holscher (D)
$9.3K on Yes at 31¢ · pays $30K
- Wallet opened the same day
0x8c54…e1a5new that day · 15 mkts · +$5.0K P&L - 59Politics · 4 days ago
Kansas Governor Election Winner: Ty Masterson (R)
$6.2K on No at 31¢ · pays $20K
- Wallet opened the same day
0x8c54…e1a5new that day · 15 mkts · +$5.0K P&L - 55Politics · 3 days ago
Kansas Governor Election Winner: Cindy Holscher (D)
$1.4K on Yes at 81¢ · pays $1.7K
- Wallet is 4 days old
- Only 5 markets ever traded
0x0481…c46d4d old · 5 mkts · −$10K P&L
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: The end date has passed and it is still open.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Kansas gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Ask Cleus about this market
Cleus has this market’s prices, rules, its own odds and the unusual bets in front of it, and searches the web and X for the rest.
Analysis, not financial advice. Prediction markets can lose you money. Free: 3 questions a day.
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Questions
What are the odds of Kansas Governor Election Winner?
On Polymarket, Cindy Holscher (D) is trading at >99%. Other outcomes: Cindy Holscher (D) >99%, Ty Masterson (R) <1%. Prices update live.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on November 4, 2026, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.