Israel Election: Arab party disqualified?
Odds right now: Yes <1%.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
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Israel Election: Arab party disqualified: the story so far
Updated November 9, 2026 at 6:07 PM UTC from live market data.
As of November 9, 2026, Polymarket traders give “Israel Election: Arab party disqualified” a <1% chance. The price has fallen 50 points since October 28, from 51% to <1%.
$120K has been traded on this event, $8.4K of it in the last 24 hours, and $69K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “Israel Election: Arab party disqualified”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have nearly all of their money on No.
Trading is scheduled to end on November 30, 2026. How it resolves: Elections to the 26th Knesset were held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Arab party is effectively disqualified from taking the seats it won in the 2026 Knesset election by the swearing-in of the 26th Knesset, or November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time, whichever comes first. Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “Israel Election: Arab party disqualified?”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 8 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Full rules from Polymarket
Elections to the 26th Knesset were held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Arab party is effectively disqualified from taking the seats it won in the 2026 Knesset election by the swearing-in of the 26th Knesset, or November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time, whichever comes first. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An Arab party is defined as Ra'am (United Arab List) or the Joint List. A disqualification is defined as any official action by Israeli authorities, taken after the October 27, 2026 election, that prevents an Arab party from taking the seats it won in the 26th Knesset. This includes, but is not limited to: an official determination that all votes cast for an Arab party’s list will not be counted or will be invalidated; the members elected on an Arab party’s list being barred from taking their seats in the Knesset; or an Arab party being forcibly dissolved or deregistered in a manner that prevents its elected members from taking their seats. The invalidation of votes at individual polling stations, recounts, or other corrections to the official election results will not qualify, even if they reduce the number of seats an Arab party receives or cause its list to fall below the electoral threshold. A decision of the Central Elections Committee will not by itself qualify. The disqualification must be final and operative for the 2026 Knesset election, meaning that it has been approved or upheld by the Supreme Court of Israel, or that the time for judicial review has expired without the decision being set aside. If the Supreme Court overturns, sets aside, or declines to approve the disqualification, or if the Arab party is otherwise reinstated and permitted to take its seats, the disqualification will not qualify. A decision by an Arab party to voluntarily withdraw from, boycott, or otherwise decline to take its seats will not qualify. The disqualification, withdrawal, arrest, or barring of individual candidates, members, or officials of an Arab party will not qualify, provided that party’s other elected members are permitted to take their seats. Confirmation of a disqualification may come from an official announcement by the Israeli government, the Central Elections Committee, the Supreme Court of Israel, the relevant Arab party, or an authorised representative thereof. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Confirmation must occur by the swearing-in of the 26th Knesset, or November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time, whichever comes first. If no such confirmation occurs by that time, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on official information from the Israeli government and the relevant Arab party; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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Questions
What are the odds of Israel Election: Arab party disqualified?
On Polymarket, Israel Election: Arab party disqualified? is trading at <1%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with Israel Election: Arab party disqualified?
As of November 9, 2026, Polymarket traders give “Israel Election: Arab party disqualified” a <1% chance. The price has fallen 50 points since October 28, from 51% to <1%.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on November 30, 2026, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.